NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	95		Excitement	10.2 [54]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +34.7%
Indiana Pacers	96		Comeback	4.1 [329]		LVP	Ray Allen (MIL): -46.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.22	0.04	0.17	-0.00	16	53%	0.22	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Scott Williams	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.07	0.00	3	89%	0.13	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Darvin Ham	0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	2	83%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Cassell	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	17	58%	0.13	2	-0.10	4	100%	0.04
Vinny Del Negro	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.1	0.03	-0.12	0.00	2	90%	-0.08	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.12
Glenn Robinson	-0.39	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.34,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39,-0.39	-0.17	-0.21	0.01	16	31%	-0.27	3	-0.12	4	75%	-0.03
Ray Allen	-0.46	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.46	-0.08	-0.36	0.03	21	39%	-0.43	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.17	0.20	0.02	25	68%	0.52	2	-0.18	10	80%	-0.01
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	5	67%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	5	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rik Smits	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	37%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	15	26%	-0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.13	-0.13	0.00	-0.13	0.01	6	62%	-0.08	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19	-0.19	-0.08	-0.14	-0.03	12	47%	-0.14	3	-0.05	6	67%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.6	29.3	19.3	25.7	3.5	41.3	144.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +41.7%

MIL -19.4%

IND +23.5%

MIL -10.7%

IND +14.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	IND	NBA	MIL	IND	NBA
this game	16.0	15.8	15.2	106.7	104.3	101.7
season	14.9	15.4		105.5	106.5
opponent	15.1	15.4		101.8	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.1	18.2	17.6	15.5	16.0
IND	17.4	13.9	15.3	16.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vinny Del Negro	26	27	0.26	-0.76	1.01	-0.07	11	-12	23	17.9	15.3	2.65	17.9	14.9	2.93
Scott Williams	29	29	0.11	-0.61	0.73	0.05	2	-3	5	17.4	15.4	2.08	15.0	16.1	-1.14
Sam Cassell	69	74	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.12	-10	9	-19	16.0	16.1	-0.14	15.3	17.7	-2.41
Ray Allen	79	80	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.44	4	-5	9	15.8	18.2	-2.43	15.6	17.0	-1.40
Tim Thomas	63	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.50	3	-4	7	16.1	16.0	0.12	15.8	15.8	0.02
Darvin Ham	56	57	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	1	-3	16.4	15.4	1.08	15.6	16.1	-0.54
Ervin Johnson	64	69	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.56	-4	3	-7	15.6	17.2	-1.66	16.1	15.0	1.10
Glenn Robinson	59	62	-0.80	0.30	-1.11	-0.54	-9	8	-17	15.0	18.1	-3.05	15.9	15.5	0.42

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Davis	64	61	0.91	-0.41	1.33	0.59	11	-10	21	15.1	17.4	-2.37	15.6	17.0	-1.39
Reggie Miller	76	74	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.55	8	-7	15	15.7	16.3	-0.64	15.2	20.2	-5.00
Travis Best	58	58	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.44	2	-1	3	15.3	16.7	-1.42	16.5	15.1	1.41
Jalen Rose	83	80	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.48	-2	3	-5	16.4	10.2	6.16	15.7	19.2	-3.53
Derrick McKey	47	47	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.46	-3	4	-7	15.4	16.1	-0.69	17.0	15.0	2.07
Mark Jackson	34	31	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	2	-3	16.7	15.3	1.42	15.1	16.5	-1.41
Rik Smits	40	39	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	3	-5	16.3	15.3	1.00	15.5	16.5	-0.99
Austin Croshere	34	32	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.10	-4	5	-9	14.7	16.4	-1.75	17.3	15.4	1.93
Sam Perkins	24	23	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.13	-4	5	-9	17.2	15.3	1.99	18.4	15.2	3.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.24,0.37,0.31,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.29,0.23,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 76, DET 79	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.43,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.45,0.72,1	91.9%
IND 96, CLE 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.43,0.33,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.47,0.31,0.6,0.66,0.53,0.36,0.45,0.59,1	91.1%
PHI 88, CLE 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.35,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.73,0.54,0.53,0.21,0.22,0.42,1	90.5%