NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	96		Excitement	9.3 [118]		MVP	Tristan Thompson (CLE): +43.9%
Cleveland Cavaliers	100		Comeback	4.3 [428]		LVP	Ian Mahinmi (IND): -21.7%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.17	0.08	0.09	-0.00	21	57%	0.24	2	-0.07	7	86%	0.04
Chase Budinger	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	6	92%	0.20	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.11,0.1	0.08	0.01	-0.01	16	62%	0.17	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.05
Myles Turner	0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	8	50%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	7	69%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Lavoy Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	71%	0.05	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Solomon Hill	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	4	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hill	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	9	33%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	6	17%	-0.10	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.44	0.44	0.12	0.32	0.00	7	82%	0.44	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.17,0.17	0.17	-0.00	0.16	-0.01	6	50%	0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.11	-0.07	0.01	22	67%	0.24	5	-0.21	5	60%	-0.02
Richard Jefferson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	14	39%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.11	-0.11	0.03	-0.14	0.01	13	59%	0.09	4	-0.20	11	100%	0.09
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	6	0%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.11	-0.00	14	41%	-0.11	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	29.0	15.6	28.5	2.5	38.9	139.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +10.2%

CLE +8.9%

CLE +38.5%

IND -6.2%

IND -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	CLE	NBA	IND	CLE	NBA
this game	15.9	16.8	14.9	109.1	113.6	105.1
season	14.6	15.8		103.2	110.3
opponent	14.9	14.9		103.7	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	18.6	17.8	14.3	13.8	15.9
CLE	17.4	18.2	15.7	16.2	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chase Budinger	27	25	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.00	3	-7	10	16.3	15.8	0.51	18.2	16.3	1.99
Lavoy Allen	28	32	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-4	4	16.8	15.5	1.29	18.2	16.0	2.15
Solomon Hill	6	7	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-2	0	18.7	15.7	2.96	18.9	16.6	2.22
Myles Turner	58	56	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-4	4	15.4	16.9	-1.55	16.1	18.1	-2.00
Ian Mahinmi	42	41	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.15	1	-5	6	14.9	16.8	-1.88	16.8	16.9	-0.07
George Hill	72	72	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.28	5	-9	14	15.9	16.1	-0.26	16.5	18.2	-1.67
Jordan Hill	44	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-1	-2	17.3	14.5	2.77	17.6	16.1	1.45
Rodney Stuckey	28	30	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.41	1	-5	6	17.0	15.4	1.65	19.0	15.7	3.36
Paul George	68	67	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.46	-11	7	-18	15.4	17.8	-2.45	15.9	19.9	-3.99
Monta Ellis	67	67	-0.86	0.36	-1.22	-0.45	-14	10	-24	15.5	17.3	-1.87	15.9	19.9	-3.99

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	69	70	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.45	12	-8	20	15.9	20.2	-4.33	15.4	17.7	-2.28
J.R. Smith	65	65	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.50	10	-6	16	15.7	20.0	-4.37	15.2	17.9	-2.71
Tristan Thompson	57	54	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.47	7	-3	10	16.9	16.6	0.37	16.1	15.5	0.62
Kyrie Irving	67	66	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.35	4	0	4	16.7	17.1	-0.36	15.9	16.0	-0.12
Matthew Dellavedova	39	39	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.31	1	3	-2	17.1	16.6	0.42	15.2	16.5	-1.36
Kevin Love	72	74	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.14	2	2	0	17.1	15.4	1.76	16.5	12.6	3.97
Richard Jefferson	14	12	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	10	-16	21.0	16.0	4.97	18.4	15.5	2.90
Timofey Mozgov	29	31	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.01	-6	10	-16	16.1	17.2	-1.12	15.9	15.9	-0.06
Iman Shumpert	28	29	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.11	-4	8	-12	19.2	15.7	3.57	16.7	15.5	1.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.43,0.33,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.47,0.31,0.6,0.66,0.53,0.36,0.45,0.59,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 91, NYK 92	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.42,0.32,0.45,0.35,0.37,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.65,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.55,0.58,1	91.1%
MIL 95, IND 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.24,0.37,0.31,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.29,0.23,0.58,1	91.1%
LAC 103, POR 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.68,0.95,1	91.0%