NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	88		Excitement	7.9 [271]		MVP	Larry Johnson (NYK): +34.0%
New York Knicks	92		Comeback	1.0 [925]		LVP	Vince Carter (TOR): -29.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles Oakley	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.08	-0.01	8	69%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.04	-0.01	6	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.02
Dell Curry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	5	60%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	14	43%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Doug Christie	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	5	36%	-0.13	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Tracy McGrady	-0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.1,-0.19	-0.09	-0.10	0.00	21	52%	0.04	6	-0.23	6	83%	0.06
Vince Carter	-0.30	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,0,-0.09,-0.3	-0.18	-0.13	-0.02	20	32%	-0.24	2	-0.06	10	90%	0.09

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.34	0.34	0.07	0.27	0.01	11	68%	0.37	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.09	-0.04	5	75%	0.16	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.03
Patrick Ewing	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.07	0.11	-0.03	15	45%	0.14	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.06
Allan Houston	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	15	58%	0.08	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Chris Dudley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Brunson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	16	58%	0.11	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	2.4	29.7	20.4	25.2	2.7	52.6	163.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +99.9%

TOR -19.5%

TOR -42.7%

NYK +6.5%

NYK +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	NYK	NBA	TOR	NYK	NBA
this game	16.0	14.9	15.2	93.6	100.0	101.7
season	15.5	16.1		101.8	100.0
opponent	15.8	14.9		98.8	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.8	15.6	15.4	16.2	16.0
NYK	13.2	15.0	16.6	15.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Muggsy Bogues	41	40	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.06	7	-11	18	17.2	15.1	2.10	15.2	14.7	0.45
Dee Brown	13	12	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.05	2	-6	8	13.3	16.4	-3.14	15.8	14.8	1.02
Kevin Willis	44	42	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.28	9	-13	22	15.7	16.3	-0.62	15.1	14.8	0.32
Dell Curry	23	21	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.13	2	-6	8	16.1	16.0	0.10	12.6	15.6	-3.08
Charles Oakley	80	80	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.28	2	-6	8	16.0	15.8	0.26	15.0	14.4	0.61
Antonio Davis	71	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.23	-10	6	-16	16.2	15.4	0.76	14.9	15.2	-0.30
Tracy McGrady	76	74	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.25	-10	6	-16	15.7	17.3	-1.57	15.1	14.2	0.97
Vince Carter	70	71	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.34	-10	6	-16	16.6	14.4	2.20	15.0	14.8	0.18
Doug Christie	52	51	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.30	-12	8	-20	15.4	16.8	-1.44	15.0	14.9	0.17

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Latrell Sprewell	84	86	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.34	14	-10	24	15.3	11.4	3.91	16.0	15.9	0.15
Patrick Ewing	62	63	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.17	10	-6	16	15.0	14.7	0.32	15.6	16.8	-1.14
Larry Johnson	71	70	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.46	-1	5	-6	15.1	14.4	0.73	16.2	15.4	0.80
Chris Childs	60	61	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.40	1	3	-2	14.8	15.2	-0.37	16.5	15.1	1.37
Allan Houston	79	81	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	0	4	14.7	16.6	-1.94	15.6	18.8	-3.20
Kurt Thomas	27	29	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.29	-3	7	-10	14.1	15.3	-1.18	16.6	15.7	0.88
Charlie Ward	31	31	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.04	5	-1	6	15.4	14.7	0.71	15.5	16.3	-0.79
Chris Dudley	1	2	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	4	-4	8.0	15.0	-7.02	9.5	16.2	-6.65
Rick Brunson	1	2	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.02	0	4	-4	8.0	15.0	-7.02	9.5	16.2	-6.65
Marcus Camby	44	45	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.06	-10	14	-24	15.0	14.9	0.19	16.9	15.2	1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.85,0.78,0.66,0.76,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.67,0.59,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 98, MIA 104	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.68,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.64,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.77,0.82,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.91,0.79,0.91,0.78,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.58,1	93.1%
PHI 77, DET 78	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.83,0.71,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.67,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.68,0.78,0.85,0.84,1	92.2%
GSW 74, SAS 76	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.77,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.71,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.86,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.85,1	92.0%