NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	98		Excitement	7.1 [382]		MVP	Rasual Butler (MIA): +29.0%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	1.0 [903]		LVP	Toni Kukoc (MIL): -27.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	9	83%	0.17	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.07,0.07,0.02	-0.02	0.04	0.00	20	50%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Marcus Haislip	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	86%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Daniel Santiago	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.03	-0.00	9	62%	0.10	5	-0.13	8	100%	0.09
Michael Redd	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.00	13	57%	-0.03	1	-0.01	11	100%	0.08
Erick Strickland	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	45%	-0.04	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.02
Toni Kukoc	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.28	-0.07	-0.22	-0.01	9	35%	-0.26	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.09

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.08	0.20	-0.01	14	65%	0.31	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.04
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24	0.24	0.20	0.07	0.03	9	105%	0.27	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.06
Caron Butler	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.04	-0.02	19	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	9	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	14	41%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.21,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	13	48%	-0.12	2	-0.03	7	86%	-0.06
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	5	25%	-0.13	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	0.2	27.9	15.8	25.4	2.4	39.5	136.3
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +49.0%

MIL -28.0%

MIA +13.5%

MIA +13.2%

MIA +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.9	15.4	15.7	104.3	108.3	100.5
season	15.3	16.2		103.6	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.5		98.8	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.0	15.7	17.0	12.2	14.9
MIA	12.7	16.3	15.7	17.1	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Haislip	19	19	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.09	2	-8	10	14.8	14.9	-0.09	14.9	15.5	-0.62
Daniel Santiago	37	38	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-4	2	16.9	13.6	3.26	16.1	14.9	1.13
Dan Gadzuric	40	39	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-3	0	14.9	14.9	-0.03	14.0	16.3	-2.31
Erick Strickland	33	32	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-6	6	15.6	14.6	1.02	15.0	15.6	-0.55
Desmond Mason	77	79	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.26	1	-7	8	14.9	15.0	-0.10	15.9	13.1	2.77
Toni Kukoc	46	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-8	10	13.7	16.1	-2.47	15.8	15.0	0.87
Damon Jones	61	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.10	-6	0	-6	14.6	15.6	-1.02	15.6	15.0	0.55
Michael Redd	80	82	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.19	-11	5	-16	14.8	15.7	-0.94	15.1	17.3	-2.21
Keith Van Horn	77	79	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.29	-13	7	-20	14.9	14.9	-0.03	15.4	15.2	0.27

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	80	77	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.18	16	-10	26	15.4	15.5	-0.12	15.1	14.0	1.12
Lamar Odom	83	82	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.32	10	-4	14	15.2	16.6	-1.41	15.1	13.4	1.72
Brian Grant	51	51	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.08	12	-6	18	14.7	16.2	-1.47	15.5	14.3	1.21
Rasual Butler	50	51	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.44	-1	7	-8	15.3	15.5	-0.28	14.0	16.0	-1.96
Rafer Alston	87	84	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.37	0	6	-6	15.6	13.4	2.15	14.8	15.7	-0.88
Udonis Haslem	50	49	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.32	-8	14	-22	16.8	13.9	2.89	14.0	15.9	-1.91
Caron Butler	71	70	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.02	3	3	0	15.3	15.8	-0.49	15.5	13.3	2.12
Samaki Walker	8	6	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.08	-2	8	-10	13.1	15.6	-2.48	14.7	14.9	-0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.68,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.81,0.84,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.64,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.77,0.82,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.91,0.79,0.91,0.78,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 88, NYK 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.85,0.78,0.66,0.76,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.67,0.59,1	93.1%
SAC 84, MIN 86	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.75,0.85,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.61,0.79,0.91,0.58,1	92.8%
DAL 105, POR 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.8,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.9,0.84,0.93,0.72,1	92.7%