NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	105		Excitement	8.8 [175]		MVP	Derrick White (BOS): +22.5%
Indiana Pacers	102		Comeback	8.9 [271]		LVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): -25.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick White	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06,0.23	0.07	0.16	0.01	14	57%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0.12	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.04	-0.02	22	58%	0.22	3	-0.10	6	50%	-0.03
Jrue Holiday	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.03	0.06	13	63%	0.09	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Payton Pritchard	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	83%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	4	70%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Xavier Tillman	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	6	36%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jayson Tatum	-0.25	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0,-0.13,-0.24,-0.25	-0.04	-0.22	-0.01	26	49%	0.05	5	-0.30	1	100%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Obi Toppin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	9	67%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Nesmith	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	11	50%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Isaiah Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Sheppard	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	16	44%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	6	57%	0.04	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Nembhard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,-0.06,-0.13	-0.13	0.09	-0.21	0.00	18	65%	0.09	3	-0.21	1	100%	0.01
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.1,-0.02,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	0.00	18	46%	0.07	3	-0.23	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	3.6	31.7	14.7	31.0	3.8	30.5	141.2
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +18.3%

BOS +2.6%

BOS +18.1%

BOS +8.6%

BOS +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	IND	NBA	BOS	IND	NBA
this game	16.3	13.9	14.5	109.4	108.5	113.9
season	14.9	13.8		120.7	120.0
opponent	14.7	14.7		117.4	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.0	15.0	16.2	19.6	16.3
IND	15.6	13.2	12.1	15.4	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Hauser	28	28	-0.03	-0.24	0.20	-0.15	4	-8	12	15.2	16.5	-1.25	15.8	13.3	2.49
Xavier Tillman	19	18	-0.11	-0.16	0.04	-0.05	-2	-2	0	16.7	15.9	0.84	14.0	14.2	-0.16
Jaylen Brown	82	81	-0.14	-0.13	-0.00	-0.11	-1	-3	2	16.1	15.6	0.50	14.5	9.7	4.79
Jrue Holiday	73	71	-0.19	-0.08	-0.12	-0.05	-5	1	-6	15.4	19.1	-3.68	13.8	15.6	-1.81
Derrick White	78	76	-0.21	-0.06	-0.14	-0.15	-2	-2	0	16.1	15.7	0.38	14.3	13.2	1.01
Jayson Tatum	79	77	-0.21	-0.06	-0.16	-0.18	-1	-3	2	16.8	11.2	5.58	13.8	16.4	-2.56
Payton Pritchard	19	18	-0.22	-0.05	-0.17	0.04	-9	5	-14	16.4	16.0	0.44	11.6	14.8	-3.23
Al Horford	72	71	-0.23	-0.04	-0.19	-0.11	-4	0	-4	16.0	16.4	-0.39	14.3	13.6	0.67

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Obi Toppin	55	57	0.18	-0.09	0.27	0.03	5	-5	10	14.3	13.4	0.83	16.0	16.5	-0.50
T.J. McConnell	49	50	0.17	-0.09	0.26	0.05	4	-4	8	14.0	13.9	0.05	15.2	17.2	-2.01
Doug McDermott	26	27	0.13	-0.05	0.18	-0.01	5	-5	10	13.8	14.0	-0.23	15.6	16.4	-0.77
Isaiah Jackson	23	23	0.11	-0.03	0.13	-0.04	5	-5	10	13.9	14.0	-0.09	15.6	16.4	-0.82
Andrew Nembhard	73	73	0.10	-0.02	0.12	0.04	2	-2	4	13.5	15.3	-1.80	16.8	13.9	2.99
Ben Sheppard	44	44	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-1	-1	13.8	14.1	-0.33	15.4	17.1	-1.68
Myles Turner	51	52	-0.04	0.13	-0.17	0.19	-8	8	-16	14.4	13.3	1.10	16.9	15.3	1.66
Pascal Siakam	75	75	-0.04	0.13	-0.17	0.13	-6	6	-12	14.1	13.3	0.75	16.7	14.3	2.34
Aaron Nesmith	69	69	-0.15	0.23	-0.38	-0.00	-5	5	-10	13.7	14.5	-0.82	16.1	16.3	-0.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.63,0.43,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 103, SEA 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.64,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.16,0	91.3%
HOU 113, DAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.86,0.83,0.7,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.75,0.54,0.34,0.27,0	91.2%
POR 86, HOU 85	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.84,0.78,0.76,0.63,0.43,0.58,0	90.8%