NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	119		Excitement	9.1 [172]		MVP	Trae Young (ATL): +83.6%
Boston Celtics	117		Comeback	44.7 [13]		LVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): -10.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trae Young	0.84	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,0.01,0.08,0.84	0.03	0.84	0.03	33	54%	0.93	4	-0.10	5	100%	0.27
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.17	0.03	0.01	9	86%	0.20	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
De'Andre Hunter	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	11	59%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Onyeka Okongwu	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	6	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Saddiq Bey	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	60%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Collins	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.00	0.04	18	61%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.51	0.51	0.14	0.38	0.00	11	75%	0.51	0	0.00	2	100%	0.14
Robert Williams III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.28	0.28	0.08	0.20	0.00	6	77%	0.28	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.06
Sam Hauser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	5	80%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.00	-0.01	12	56%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Blake Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	21	43%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.04,-0.08	-0.08	0.15	-0.20	0.03	23	69%	0.14	4	-0.22	5	20%	-0.08
Al Horford	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	5	30%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.00	-0.10	0.01	8	56%	0.05	2	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	3.5	30.4	15.4	23.5	3.3	38.7	138.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +21.4%

ATL +4.8%

BOS -22.5%

ATL +24.9%

ATL +21.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	BOS	NBA	ATL	BOS	NBA
this game	15.2	14.5	14.4	125.3	118.2	113.4
season	13.8	14.5		115.1	116.3
opponent	14.6	14.4		110.6	114.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.3	15.7	16.6	13.2	15.2
BOS	14.7	11.2	16.9	16.1	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bogdan Bogdanovic	70	73	1.05	-0.55	1.61	0.73	11	-9	20	14.5	17.0	-2.45	14.5	14.5	0.01
Onyeka Okongwu	50	54	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.46	8	-6	14	15.9	14.3	1.65	14.8	14.2	0.55
De'Andre Hunter	83	86	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.41	7	-5	12	14.8	17.8	-3.06	14.9	12.0	2.93
Trae Young	87	91	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.34	5	-3	8	14.9	17.7	-2.83	14.5	15.0	-0.49
John Collins	63	64	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	4	-6	14.4	16.6	-2.12	14.5	14.6	-0.13
Jalen Johnson	23	25	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.08	1	1	0	18.7	14.0	4.61	15.6	14.2	1.46
Aaron Holiday	8	8	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	5	-8	17.7	14.9	2.83	15.0	14.5	0.49
Clint Capela	44	44	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.07	-6	8	-14	14.2	16.0	-1.86	14.5	14.6	-0.04
Saddiq Bey	47	50	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.22	-11	13	-24	16.1	14.2	1.96	13.1	16.0	-2.84

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malcolm Brogdon	54	50	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.16	2	-4	6	13.5	15.8	-2.38	15.9	14.4	1.52
Blake Griffin	12	12	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.12	0	-2	2	18.3	14.0	4.31	12.8	15.5	-2.66
Sam Hauser	25	23	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.08	-1	-1	0	15.6	14.2	1.46	18.7	14.0	4.61
Derrick White	61	60	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.21	8	-10	18	15.4	13.1	2.34	15.4	14.7	0.70
Robert Williams III	55	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.24	-1	-1	0	14.8	14.3	0.49	15.9	14.2	1.69
Jaylen Brown	80	79	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.56	1	-3	4	14.5	14.6	-0.11	14.6	17.9	-3.34
Al Horford	73	70	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.60	1	-3	4	13.7	16.9	-3.17	14.0	18.3	-4.29
Jayson Tatum	78	75	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.45	-9	7	-16	14.6	14.3	0.33	15.3	14.7	0.58
Marcus Smart	57	55	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.50	-11	9	-20	14.1	15.1	-1.00	14.6	15.9	-1.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.78,0.86,0.95,0.95,0.92,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.72,0.78,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 115, TOR 113	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.74,0.69,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.8,0.82,0.66,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.7,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.91,0.8,0.89,0.78,0.71,0	91.2%
POR 110, MIA 107	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.84,0.88,0.83,0.92,0.81,0.91,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.84,0.57,0.58,0	90.9%
DAL 99, SEA 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.68,0.75,0.87,0.82,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.69,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.73,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.75,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.87,0.81,0.71,0.45,0.58,0	90.9%