NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	114		Excitement	8.9 [187]		MVP	Fred VanVleet (TOR): +37.5%
Golden State Warriors	110		Comeback	2.3 [411]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -26.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred VanVleet	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38	0.14	0.24	0.00	14	67%	0.40	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.06
Pascal Siakam	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.23	0.13	0.12	0.01	17	68%	0.35	2	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	12	58%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Kyle Lowry	0.02	0,0,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.11	-0.06	0.03	16	68%	0.15	3	-0.12	6	67%	-0.02
Kawhi Leonard	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	-0.06	0.01	16	55%	0.04	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.01
Marc Gasol	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	5	21%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.02
Norman Powell	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.15	-0.02	-0.13	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.26	0.08	0.02	12	88%	0.35	2	-0.04	10	100%	0.06
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.09	0.00	15	63%	0.22	1	-0.03	5	20%	-0.07
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	9	48%	0.03	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.09
Jonas Jerebko	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinn Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alfonzo McKinnie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11	-0.11	0.00	-0.16	-0.05	17	52%	-0.04	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.06
Draymond Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.29,-0.34,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.15	-0.13	-0.02	10	50%	0.05	8	-0.32	2	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	2.8	30.1	13.7	35.6	2.0	40.3	153.5
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +20.1%

TOR +14.4%

TOR +2.8%

TOR +11.5%

TOR +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	GSW	NBA	TOR	GSW	NBA
this game	15.7	14.0	14.3	118.8	112.2	109.3
season	14.3	13.4		111.5	114.5
opponent	15.0	14.5		108.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.3	14.6	16.7	17.5	15.7
GSW	12.4	16.0	14.0	13.8	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	84	87	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.36	16	-12	28	15.2	19.6	-4.40	13.9	14.4	-0.43
Serge Ibaka	45	48	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.38	9	-5	14	14.1	17.2	-3.09	14.4	13.6	0.77
Pascal Siakam	92	93	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.42	2	2	0	15.9	10.7	5.20	14.2	10.2	3.98
Kawhi Leonard	82	83	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.42	-2	6	-8	16.2	12.9	3.28	13.3	17.8	-4.51
Fred VanVleet	65	66	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.52	-10	14	-24	17.0	13.0	4.03	14.0	13.9	0.16
Norman Powell	23	24	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	-1	6	12.7	16.7	-3.99	15.5	13.5	2.01
Marc Gasol	53	51	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.19	-7	11	-18	17.1	14.0	3.13	13.8	14.2	-0.37
Danny Green	36	38	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	-0.39	7	-3	10	14.9	16.2	-1.26	13.8	14.1	-0.31

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Klay Thompson	65	65	0.17	-0.67	0.85	0.03	5	-9	14	14.0	13.9	0.11	15.8	15.7	0.08
Alfonzo McKinnie	23	22	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.00	4	-8	12	12.7	14.4	-1.68	15.2	15.9	-0.65
Jonas Jerebko	5	5	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.05	1	-5	6	17.4	13.8	3.60	13.4	15.9	-2.46
Andrew Bogut	6	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-3	2	13.2	14.0	-0.87	12.3	16.0	-3.62
Kevon Looney	55	54	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	0	-4	13.9	14.0	-0.08	16.3	15.0	1.30
Andre Iguodala	65	63	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	1	-6	13.8	14.3	-0.53	16.2	14.8	1.34
Shaun Livingston	30	32	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.22	-1	-3	2	14.9	13.6	1.28	16.9	15.1	1.81
Draymond Green	89	88	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.42	0	-4	4	13.6	17.8	-4.18	16.1	11.7	4.34
DeMarcus Cousins	39	37	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.37	-2	-2	0	14.8	13.4	1.44	14.6	16.4	-1.80
Stephen Curry	84	83	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	-3	2	13.4	17.6	-4.27	16.3	12.4	3.87
Quinn Cook	29	25	-0.96	0.46	-1.43	-0.49	-16	12	-28	15.8	13.2	2.62	12.1	17.0	-4.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.65,0.52,0.45,0.15,0.07,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 104, UTA 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.41,0.33,0.39,0.11,0.03,0,0	92.3%
DEN 111, LAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.7,0.68,0.5,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.59,0.39,0.45,0.22,0.1,0.16,0	92.0%
CHA 101, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.63,0.79,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.53,0.4,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.16,0	91.4%