NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	101		Excitement	8.0 [307]		MVP	Kawhi Leonard (TOR): +34.9%
Philadelphia 76ers	96		Comeback	2.1 [521]		LVP	Joel Embiid (PHI): -28.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kawhi Leonard	0.35	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.02,0.06,0.15,0.35,0.35	0.14	0.22	0.00	20	75%	0.58	7	-0.23	12	67%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.00	12	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	13	54%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	69%	0.07	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.06
Norman Powell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick McCaw	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.03	0.01	10	35%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Fred VanVleet	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.08,-0.08	0.02	-0.10	0.00	13	62%	0.14	3	-0.22	0	0%	0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.15	0.16	0.02	9	90%	0.34	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.10	-0.00	18	63%	0.28	4	-0.11	10	80%	0.03
James Ennis III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	56%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Simmons	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.02	10	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	3	0%	-0.09	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21	-0.21	-0.11	-0.08	0.02	23	35%	-0.15	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joel Embiid	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.04	-0.24	0.01	7	46%	-0.13	2	-0.15	10	70%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	3.3	30.9	15.6	26.9	3.5	45.9	153.6
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +48.6%

TOR +5.7%

PHI -2.5%

PHI -8.8%

TOR +7.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	PHI	NBA	TOR	PHI	NBA
this game	14.1	16.4	14.3	106.3	102.1	109.3
season	14.3	14.0		111.5	110.9
opponent	14.1	14.5		108.1	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	12.8	13.0	15.2	15.6	14.1
PHI	16.0	15.3	19.0	15.7	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Green	79	77	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.41	9	-4	13	13.7	15.7	-1.95	16.8	14.9	1.88
Kawhi Leonard	84	84	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.36	7	-2	9	13.8	16.2	-2.40	16.5	15.4	1.15
Marc Gasol	75	76	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.18	13	-8	21	14.2	13.6	0.52	16.5	15.9	0.60
Kyle Lowry	82	81	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.23	11	-6	17	14.0	14.7	-0.73	16.5	16.0	0.49
Serge Ibaka	63	61	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.41	-1	6	-7	15.1	12.0	3.11	16.5	16.3	0.14
Patrick McCaw	10	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.01	-1	6	-7	15.5	13.9	1.61	14.2	16.7	-2.49
Norman Powell	8	8	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.02	-2	7	-9	16.1	13.9	2.25	16.2	16.4	-0.19
Fred VanVleet	15	16	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.11	-6	11	-17	13.3	14.2	-0.87	13.5	17.0	-3.53
Pascal Siakam	59	57	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.04	-5	10	-15	13.4	15.1	-1.64	16.7	16.0	0.75

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Embiid	68	68	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.38	17	-22	39	16.0	17.4	-1.38	15.3	11.0	4.33
James Ennis III	49	52	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	0	-5	16.6	16.2	0.43	14.4	13.6	0.80
Mike Scott	26	24	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.07	-3	-2	-1	16.0	16.6	-0.54	14.0	14.1	-0.03
JJ Redick	69	69	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.41	7	-12	19	15.8	18.3	-2.53	14.9	11.9	2.95
Jimmy Butler	80	80	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.44	1	-6	7	16.6	15.6	0.92	14.0	14.6	-0.64
Greg Monroe	23	25	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.08	-18	13	-31	16.8	16.3	0.47	10.5	15.3	-4.81
Tobias Harris	81	83	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.25	-8	3	-11	16.6	15.5	1.12	13.6	17.3	-3.74
Ben Simmons	73	74	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.31	-16	11	-27	17.2	13.7	3.49	13.8	15.1	-1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.28,0.38,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.43,0.55,0.55,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.19,0.32,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 104, MIL 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.52,0.42,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.64,0.54,0.39,0.25,0.29,0.07,0.07,0	92.5%
HOU 100, ORL 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.29,0.25,0.11,0.1,0.01,0	92.0%
UTA 84, VAN 75	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.04,0	91.7%