NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	123		Excitement	6.9 [488]		MVP	Anthony Davis (NOP): +51.0%
New Orleans Pelicans	131		Comeback	1.4 [1058]		LVP	Zach Collins (POR): -7.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0.32	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.32	0.27	0.09	0.04	22	75%	0.38	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.25	0.18	0.09	0.02	20	67%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.04	-0.00	13	69%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.04	-0.03	12	58%	0.16	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Damian Lillard	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	16	51%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Wade Baldwin IV	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Pat Connaughton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51	0.51	0.31	0.22	0.03	24	72%	0.56	2	-0.05	17	88%	0.05
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.17,0.23,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.22,0.22,0.25	0.25	0.11	0.14	0.00	23	71%	0.48	7	-0.23	12	75%	0.02
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.00	10	61%	0.12	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	8	56%	0.08	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Darius Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.06	7	47%	0.07	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Solomon Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Ian Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.3	3.4	34.3	16.3	30.7	2.7	36.2	153.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +32.2%

NOP +21.4%

NOP +23.7%

POR -27.5%

NOP +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	NOP	NBA	POR	NOP	NBA
this game	15.3	12.5	14.7	118.3	127.2	107.5
season	15.2	13.6		107.8	108.0
opponent	14.6	14.3		107.0	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	18.7	14.3	15.0	13.1	15.3
NOP	10.1	13.9	10.7	15.7	12.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wade Baldwin IV	18	20	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.04	1	-9	10	14.9	15.3	-0.39	10.1	13.1	-3.03
Zach Collins	32	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	0	-8	15.6	15.1	0.51	10.7	13.4	-2.69
Ed Davis	31	30	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.06	-8	0	-8	15.8	15.0	0.81	10.6	13.4	-2.79
Evan Turner	76	75	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.28	2	-10	12	15.2	15.3	-0.07	13.5	10.0	3.49
Pat Connaughton	23	22	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.10	-13	5	-18	17.2	14.7	2.45	9.0	13.5	-4.56
Jusuf Nurkic	70	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.36	2	-10	12	15.2	15.5	-0.30	13.4	10.6	2.81
Al-Farouq Aminu	73	73	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-8	8	15.0	15.8	-0.81	13.4	10.6	2.79
Damian Lillard	98	97	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.27	-7	-1	-6	14.9	21.3	-6.44	12.8	8.2	4.65
CJ McCollum	99	96	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.28	-9	1	-10	15.2	16.2	-0.98	12.8	8.7	4.11

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Davis	82	83	0.66	-0.15	0.81	0.22	15	-7	22	12.0	14.7	-2.73	15.8	13.2	2.55
Rajon Rondo	75	77	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.09	12	-4	16	13.1	11.2	1.87	14.4	17.7	-3.24
E'Twaun Moore	72	72	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.23	7	1	6	13.5	10.4	3.09	15.2	15.5	-0.38
Nikola Mirotic	86	87	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.19	8	0	8	12.8	11.5	1.29	15.8	12.5	3.28
Jrue Holiday	86	89	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.28	3	5	-2	12.4	13.1	-0.62	15.8	12.1	3.66
Darius Miller	50	48	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.16	3	5	-2	12.7	12.4	0.23	15.7	14.9	0.78
Ian Clark	26	26	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.04	-1	9	-10	8.6	13.9	-5.25	15.5	15.2	0.31
Solomon Hill	38	38	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.12	-7	15	-22	13.3	12.1	1.14	12.9	16.6	-3.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.87,0.86,0.71,0.63,0.79,0.79,0.61,0.76,0.72,0.97,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 83, ATL 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.67,0.53,0.75,0.9,0.97,1,1	93.4%
ORL 88, DET 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.85,0.87,0.7,0.62,0.77,0.83,0.71,0.66,0.75,0.93,0.97,1,1	93.4%
POR 87, IND 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.9,0.99,1,1	93.0%