NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	107		Excitement	12.4 [16]		MVP	Danny Green (SAS): +59.6%
San Antonio Spurs	110		Comeback	7.4 [247]		LVP	James Harden (HOU): -61.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Anderson	0.40	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.4	0.12	0.29	0.00	11	73%	0.44	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Patrick Beverley	0.28	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.16	0.14	0.02	10	87%	0.38	2	-0.10	3	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	-0.02	-0.05	10	45%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Gordon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03	-0.08	0.05	-0.00	13	37%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01
Lou Williams	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	10	30%	-0.05	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.61	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,-0.05,-0.11,-0.26,-0.26,-0.34,-0.54,-0.61	-0.03	-0.55	0.03	24	59%	0.04	9	-0.65	8	87%	0.07

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Green	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.6	0.60	0.09	0.52	0.01	11	64%	0.63	1	-0.04	3	67%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.11	-0.01	11	50%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
David Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.08	-0.09	0.02	16	59%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.04
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	14	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	0.03
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.13	0.01	21	46%	-0.09	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.15,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38	-0.38	-0.10	-0.29	-0.01	21	37%	-0.15	2	-0.23	7	57%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	28.1	3.4	35.3	17.3	25.4	3.3	33.5	2.8	17.1	166.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.9	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU -50.4%

SAS +12.1%

SAS +50.4%

SAS +50.8%

HOU -13.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAS	NBA	HOU	SAS	NBA
this game	15.6	16.5	14.8	107.0	112.2	107.7
season	13.7	15.4		113.2	110.1
opponent	14.8	14.9		103.7	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
HOU	14.8	16.5	16.2	16.2	13.3	15.6
SAS	15.8	16.2	14.4	18.9	19.0	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clint Capela	63	60	0.45	-0.95	1.39	0.54	-3	0	-3	15.7	15.6	0.06	17.7	14.6	3.18
Lou Williams	47	49	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-4	5	16.0	15.3	0.78	16.8	16.2	0.63
Eric Gordon	83	83	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.36	4	-7	11	15.0	18.6	-3.56	16.1	18.5	-2.32
James Harden	84	81	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	3	-9	15.5	16.6	-1.11	16.0	18.8	-2.74
Trevor Ariza	78	75	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.47	-9	6	-15	15.6	15.8	-0.18	15.6	19.3	-3.72
Patrick Beverley	78	75	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.54	-7	4	-11	16.0	14.4	1.62	16.7	15.8	0.88
Ryan Anderson	67	67	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.90	5	-8	13	15.9	15.0	0.90	16.9	15.6	1.34

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	57	58	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.64	8	-5	13	16.5	16.5	-0.02	16.2	14.9	1.25
Jonathon Simmons	60	59	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.59	2	1	1	16.2	17.0	-0.77	15.2	16.3	-1.12
Patty Mills	81	83	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.31	8	-5	13	16.4	17.1	-0.68	15.2	17.9	-2.71
LaMarcus Aldridge	79	81	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.30	4	-1	5	16.4	16.7	-0.29	15.2	17.6	-2.47
Danny Green	74	77	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.41	-5	8	-13	17.0	14.9	2.15	15.2	17.2	-2.06
David Lee	19	19	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	0	3	16.7	16.4	0.29	18.9	14.9	4.10
Kyle Anderson	12	13	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	3	-3	17.1	16.4	0.66	16.2	15.5	0.69
Kawhi Leonard	73	74	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.06	-2	5	-7	15.6	19.0	-3.36	16.0	14.7	1.32
Pau Gasol	35	36	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.23	-3	6	-9	17.8	15.8	1.98	16.0	15.4	0.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.35,0.31,0.41,0.3,0.44,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.4,0.28,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.41,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.22,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 113, LAL 115	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.29,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.53,0.41,0.34,0.17,0.32,0.16,0.06,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.85,0.68,0.73,1	88.6%
PHX 105, DET 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.62,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.6,0.46,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.74,0.46,0.61,0.55,0.33,0.74,1	88.1%
DAL 100, MIA 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.28,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.73,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.27,1	88.1%