NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	100		Excitement	11.7 [28]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +101.9%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	5.0 [301]		LVP	Devin Harris (DAL): -23.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.11,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.25	-0.03	0.27	-0.01	19	47%	0.30	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.04
Jason Terry	0.22	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.3,0.45,0.4,0.32,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.16	0.07	-0.00	23	69%	0.35	4	-0.12	5	100%	0.08
Erick Dampier	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18	-0.00	0.19	0.00	2	83%	0.24	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.07
Marquis Daniels	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ Mbenga	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.05	0.03	-0.08	0.00	17	56%	0.03	3	-0.08	11	82%	-0.13
Devin Harris	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.09,-0.09,-0.24	-0.10	-0.15	-0.01	12	23%	-0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.19,0.45,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.51,1.02	1.02	0.07	0.96	0.01	28	53%	1.10	3	-0.08	25	84%	0.28
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.33	0.33	0.07	0.26	-0.00	5	73%	0.33	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	6	62%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	69%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	12	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	12	17%	-0.28
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.07	-0.12	-0.01	7	37%	-0.15	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	30.3	3.4	33.5	19.6	33.3	3.7	46.5	2.0	23.7	195.9
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +25.3%

MIA +45.8%

DAL -34.5%

MIA +15.0%

DAL -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.7	16.3	15.6	106.4	108.6	104.4
season	16.4	15.5		109.0	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.6		102.3	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	15.8	15.3	17.3	21.7	20.9	17.7
MIA	15.5	17.5	15.4	16.2	19.0	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeSagana Diop	33	36	0.33	-0.83	1.16	0.12	7	-8	15	18.6	17.2	1.44	18.1	15.2	2.86
Marquis Daniels	25	26	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.04	8	-9	17	15.8	18.4	-2.60	17.0	16.1	0.98
DJ Mbenga	15	15	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-1	1	17.6	17.7	-0.08	13.5	16.9	-3.34
Jason Terry	88	89	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.23	4	-5	9	17.3	22.5	-5.16	16.5	12.2	4.27
Keith Van Horn	9	7	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	6	-13	19.7	17.5	2.21	11.7	16.7	-5.00
Josh Howard	89	87	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.47	4	-5	9	17.7	17.4	0.29	16.8	9.0	7.84
Dirk Nowitzki	87	86	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.48	-1	0	-1	17.6	19.0	-1.44	16.3	16.1	0.21
Devin Harris	59	57	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.52	-2	1	-3	18.5	16.2	2.30	16.3	16.4	-0.09
Erick Dampier	35	34	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.58	-1	0	-1	16.1	18.6	-2.43	16.8	16.1	0.73
Adrian Griffin	30	28	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.12	-17	16	-33	19.0	17.0	1.95	13.4	17.6	-4.21

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	46	48	1.24	-0.74	1.97	0.94	10	-9	19	16.0	16.7	-0.70	17.7	17.6	0.12
Gary Payton	49	51	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.60	0	1	-1	16.7	15.9	0.81	19.6	15.4	4.24
James Posey	77	77	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.46	4	-3	7	15.9	18.4	-2.54	18.2	15.4	2.83
Dwyane Wade	89	88	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.46	1	0	1	16.4	14.5	1.92	17.6	19.2	-1.60
Shandon Anderson	14	13	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.04	8	-7	15	13.0	16.9	-3.92	17.2	17.8	-0.60
Alonzo Mourning	8	8	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.05	4	-3	7	11.9	16.8	-4.88	17.0	17.7	-0.73
Shaquille O'Neal	82	83	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.27	-7	8	-15	17.1	10.9	6.15	17.7	17.5	0.14
Jason Williams	48	50	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.25	1	0	1	15.8	16.9	-1.12	15.9	19.7	-3.87
Udonis Haslem	52	52	-0.60	1.10	-1.71	-0.13	-16	17	-33	17.7	14.6	3.17	17.1	18.4	-1.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.28,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.73,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 107, MIN 111	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.43,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.79,0.78,0.58,1	88.6%
HOU 107, SAS 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.35,0.31,0.41,0.3,0.44,0.54,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.4,0.28,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.41,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.22,0.42,1	88.1%
GSW 112, OKC 113	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.52,0.44,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.33,0.19,0.16,0.45,0.58,0.46,0.55,0.63,0.85,0.42,1	87.8%