NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	101		Excitement	7.6 [336]		MVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): +25.6%
Atlanta Hawks	102		Comeback	1.8 [704]		LVP	Evan Turner (BOS): -23.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.26	0.08	0.17	-0.01	10	65%	0.27	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Isaiah Thomas	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.09	0.03	0.08	0.03	21	53%	0.14	3	-0.05	9	78%	-0.03
Avery Bradley	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	16	51%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
RJ Hunter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0	-0.05	0.05	-0.01	16	41%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.06	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	14	32%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.24	-0.06	-0.17	-0.00	13	36%	-0.15	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.06	0.12	-0.06	17	57%	0.26	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.05
Jeff Teague	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.19,0.21	0.21	0.05	0.15	-0.00	15	56%	0.24	2	-0.03	11	82%	0.05
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.07	0.01	13	64%	0.19	0	0.00	10	80%	0.01
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	0.00	9	78%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	11	61%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	6	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	3	20%	-0.05	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.01
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18	-0.18	-0.16	-0.04	-0.02	10	10%	-0.15	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.4	31.3	17.0	30.8	2.5	46.5	159.8
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +21.5%

ATL +6.8%

ATL +6.7%

ATL +8.2%

ATL +6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ATL	NBA	BOS	ATL	NBA
this game	14.3	14.3	14.9	99.0	103.0	105.1
season	13.9	14.2		104.5	104.1
opponent	15.1	15.0		100.3	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.6	15.8	14.7	13.3	14.3
ATL	13.6	13.0	16.7	14.3	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Avery Bradley	69	69	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.10	0	-1	1	14.3	14.5	-0.16	14.5	13.8	0.69
Jared Sullinger	44	43	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.01	2	-3	5	13.1	15.3	-2.24	12.8	15.5	-2.73
Jonas Jerebko	34	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-6	11	15.6	13.7	1.87	14.9	14.0	0.91
RJ Hunter	6	6	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.06	-5	4	-9	15.2	14.3	0.87	7.3	14.8	-7.43
Kelly Olynyk	26	24	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	5	-11	15.7	13.9	1.86	14.0	14.4	-0.36
Jae Crowder	72	73	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.37	3	-4	7	13.4	16.6	-3.15	14.4	14.2	0.16
Marcus Smart	58	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.49	6	-7	13	15.3	13.0	2.28	15.5	12.8	2.69
Amir Johnson	44	41	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.20	-9	8	-17	15.6	13.4	2.19	16.6	12.7	3.96
Isaiah Thomas	81	80	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.43	-6	5	-11	13.7	16.7	-2.99	13.6	17.4	-3.78
Evan Turner	76	72	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.78	5	-6	11	14.1	15.1	-0.98	14.0	15.2	-1.25

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kent Bazemore	74	75	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.37	7	-6	13	13.1	18.0	-4.99	13.6	16.5	-2.91
Jeff Teague	79	78	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.36	7	-6	13	13.8	16.4	-2.68	13.8	16.1	-2.28
Paul Millsap	78	79	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.51	-3	4	-7	13.8	16.2	-2.44	13.9	15.8	-1.86
Thabo Sefolosha	45	46	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.50	-3	4	-7	14.8	13.9	0.85	15.0	13.8	1.24
Al Horford	78	80	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.46	-4	5	-9	13.7	16.6	-2.87	13.9	16.0	-2.11
Mike Scott	33	36	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.02	7	-6	13	16.9	13.0	3.89	16.2	13.3	2.95
Kyle Korver	65	68	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	-3	7	14.4	14.1	0.34	13.9	15.2	-1.25
Mike Muscala	9	9	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	0	1	14.6	14.3	0.27	14.4	14.3	0.11
Kirk Hinrich	0	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	1	-1	0.0	14.3	-14.31	1.0	14.5	-13.48
Tim Hardaway Jr.	14	16	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.10	-5	6	-11	18.9	13.6	5.38	16.9	13.9	3.00
Dennis Schroder	20	22	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.08	-6	7	-13	16.4	13.8	2.68	17.5	13.5	4.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.72,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.72,0.84,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 87, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.79,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.91,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.89,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.71,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.77,0.99,1	94.0%
PHX 93, POR 98	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.84,0.81,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.41,0.53,0.47,0.72,0.9,0.98,1	93.5%
ORL 95, CLE 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.92,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.81,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.62,0.79,0.69,0.92,1	93.2%