NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	95		Excitement	7.9 [249]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +69.8%
Cleveland Cavaliers	96		Comeback	11.7 [128]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -11.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0.53	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.53	0.05	0.47	-0.01	17	58%	0.64	2	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.11	0.00	5	100%	0.20	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07	0.12	-0.05	0.01	15	59%	0.07	0	0.00	9	78%	0.01
JJ Redick	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	4	87%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	9	55%	0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Battie	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	7	25%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	8	42%	-0.02	4	-0.09	8	50%	-0.03

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.7	0.70	0.06	0.61	-0.03	23	60%	1.06	6	-0.36	12	83%	0.02
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	1	125%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	60%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	13	43%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.15,0.01	0.01	-0.10	0.06	-0.05	21	40%	0.08	3	-0.08	5	80%	0.01
Delonte West	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.05	0.02	7	71%	0.07	1	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tarence Kinsey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	5	36%	0.02	1	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.0	3.5	40.4	20.7	32.0	2.8	42.0	173.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +18.6%

CLE +11.2%

CLE +36.8%

ORL -29.5%

CLE +13.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CLE	NBA	ORL	CLE	NBA
this game	15.1	17.5	15.5	106.7	109.1	106.4
season	15.3	16.9		107.3	110.6
opponent	15.2	15.8		101.0	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.8	14.7	15.1	15.9	15.1
CLE	15.2	16.7	19.2	19.4	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Johnson	31	30	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.05	0	-1	1	15.7	14.7	1.02	16.3	18.1	-1.79
Marcin Gortat	19	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.12	4	-5	9	13.3	15.6	-2.31	16.3	17.8	-1.51
JJ Redick	19	19	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.10	2	-3	5	14.2	15.3	-1.17	16.7	17.7	-0.94
Tony Battie	7	7	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	3	-7	18.4	14.8	3.64	16.4	17.6	-1.14
Rafer Alston	52	52	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.34	3	-4	7	14.9	15.4	-0.47	17.8	17.0	0.85
Courtney Lee	62	62	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.10	-6	5	-11	15.1	15.0	0.17	17.5	17.4	0.08
Mickael Pietrus	32	31	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.36	0	-1	1	14.7	15.3	-0.61	17.3	17.6	-0.34
Rashard Lewis	79	78	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.51	3	-4	7	14.7	18.3	-3.63	17.9	14.4	3.47
Dwight Howard	70	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.35	-5	4	-9	15.6	13.3	2.31	17.8	16.3	1.51
Hedo Turkoglu	74	73	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.53	-2	1	-3	15.4	13.4	2.02	17.7	16.6	1.06

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	59	60	0.99	-0.49	1.48	0.76	8	-7	15	17.9	16.6	1.38	14.4	16.4	-2.03
Mo Williams	74	75	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.76	0	1	-1	18.2	13.6	4.56	15.9	10.6	5.26
Delonte West	82	83	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.31	10	-9	19	17.7	14.3	3.37	15.3	11.3	4.02
Sasha Pavlovic	42	42	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.57	-1	2	-3	16.4	18.5	-2.05	14.6	15.5	-0.96
LeBron James	79	79	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.54	-7	8	-15	17.5	17.4	0.04	14.6	18.6	-3.97
Joe Smith	16	18	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.17	14	-13	27	15.9	17.8	-1.88	16.1	14.8	1.29
Tarence Kinsey	2	2	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	3	-5	8.5	17.7	-9.19	7.0	15.3	-8.26
Daniel Gibson	2	2	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	3	-5	8.5	17.7	-9.19	7.0	15.3	-8.26
Ben Wallace	30	30	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.17	-3	4	-7	17.5	17.5	0.03	15.3	15.0	0.33
Anderson Varejao	54	54	-0.67	1.17	-1.83	-0.31	-12	13	-25	17.6	17.3	0.25	15.4	14.5	0.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.92,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.81,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.62,0.79,0.69,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 101, ATL 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.72,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.72,0.84,0.92,1	93.2%
WAS 89, NJN 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.85,0.88,0.85,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.71,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.75,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.79,0.68,0.92,1	93.0%
NOP 100, MIN 107	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.87,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.84,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.81,0.74,0.77,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.76,0.91,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.54,0.53,0.85,0.84,0.99,1	92.0%