NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	87		Excitement	6.0 [630]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +22.5%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	1.5 [702]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -24.6%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.20	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2	0.11	0.10	0.01	24	60%	0.24	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Brown	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	2	100%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	9	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Kwame Brown	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Matt Carroll	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sherron Collins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tyrus Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.04	-0.00	5	56%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01
Shaun Livingston	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	9	50%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.03
Boris Diaw	-0.16	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.07	-0.08	0.01	7	57%	0.02	5	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19	-0.13	-0.06	-0.00	9	30%	-0.06	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.04	0.17	-0.01	15	58%	0.29	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.11
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.18,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.03	0.14	-0.00	25	56%	0.26	4	-0.09	7	86%	0.04
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	5	80%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	5	57%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	54%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	3	14%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.10	-0.15	-0.00	13	34%	-0.18	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.6	30.4	15.7	27.0	2.6	35.5	134.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +6.2%

MIA +10.2%

MIA +17.9%

MIA +15.0%

MIA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	14.4	16.6	15.5	92.6	103.3	105.7
season	16.2	16.0		102.3	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.3	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.1	14.7	15.6	13.3	14.4
MIA	15.9	14.7	18.7	17.4	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrus Thomas	38	35	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-10	12	13.7	14.9	-1.23	17.2	16.2	0.97
Sherron Collins	7	7	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-7	6	19.0	14.0	4.98	15.1	16.7	-1.57
Kwame Brown	21	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-4	0	14.7	14.3	0.35	16.2	16.7	-0.47
Matt Carroll	8	5	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.06	-7	-1	-6	13.0	14.5	-1.52	19.0	16.5	2.54
D.J. Augustin	46	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.11	-2	-6	4	14.3	14.5	-0.22	17.1	16.1	0.95
Nazr Mohammed	37	38	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	-2	-4	14.2	14.5	-0.25	15.9	17.1	-1.15
Shaun Livingston	49	46	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-6	-2	-4	14.6	14.2	0.33	16.0	17.2	-1.20
Derrick Brown	43	41	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-3	-2	13.8	14.9	-1.03	16.3	16.8	-0.46
Gerald Wallace	63	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.41	1	-9	10	14.6	14.0	0.64	16.7	16.4	0.22
Boris Diaw	80	80	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-3	-2	14.3	15.0	-0.71	16.7	15.7	0.98
Stephen Jackson	78	80	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.25	-7	-1	-6	14.7	12.9	1.75	16.7	15.7	1.07

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	73	75	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.16	15	-7	22	16.2	18.3	-2.10	14.6	13.5	1.15
Dwyane Wade	68	70	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.29	7	1	6	16.7	16.4	0.25	14.6	13.9	0.70
Udonis Haslem	61	64	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.20	7	1	6	16.8	16.2	0.56	14.1	15.0	-0.84
LeBron James	78	76	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.26	4	4	0	16.8	15.7	1.04	14.0	16.2	-2.19
James Jones	53	54	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	3	2	16.4	16.8	-0.43	14.3	14.5	-0.23
Carlos Arroyo	31	31	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	3	2	16.2	16.8	-0.66	14.6	14.3	0.28
Mario Chalmers	11	12	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	4	0	16.2	16.7	-0.47	17.8	13.9	3.94
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	38	36	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	9	-10	16.5	16.6	-0.12	14.9	14.1	0.80
Eddie House	35	39	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.11	-1	9	-10	16.9	16.4	0.51	13.8	14.8	-0.98
Joel Anthony	12	13	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	13	-18	18.5	16.3	2.19	13.0	14.6	-1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.79,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.85,0.91,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.89,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.71,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.77,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 101, ATL 102	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.72,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.72,0.84,0.92,1	94.0%
MIA 93, MIN 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.92,0.85,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.71,0.82,1	92.9%
VAN 90, PHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.75,0.88,0.96,0.99,1	92.4%