NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	6.8 [259]		MVP	Terry Porter (MIA): +10.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	100		Comeback	1.0 [319]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -26.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.12,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.01	9	81%	0.21	3	-0.11	8	100%	0.05
Mark Strickland	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	5	47%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Keith Askins	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	15	61%	0.04	6	-0.17	16	62%	-0.06
P.J. Brown	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.15	0.02	-0.15	0.02	9	67%	-0.10	2	-0.05	6	33%	-0.12
Tim Hardaway	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.26,-0.26	-0.07	-0.19	-0.00	17	38%	-0.19	1	-0.07	3	100%	0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	-0.00	4	81%	0.10	0	0.00	8	87%	0.05
Bill Curley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	7	57%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	0.01	15	56%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
James Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	4	75%	0.08	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Andrae Patterson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	6	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	8	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	13	48%	-0.04	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.01
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.22	-0.22	-0.07	-0.14	0.01	16	45%	-0.13	2	-0.10	6	83%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.5	28.3	15.8	29.4	2.7	40.4	144.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +8.5%

MIN +16.6%

MIN +18.7%

MIN +6.0%

MIN +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	16.2	16.0	15.8	104.5	111.1	99.6
season	16.6	15.0		101.3	98.6
opponent	15.9	16.7		98.6	96.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.8	17.6	16.0	13.0	16.2
MIN	14.8	15.9	16.7	16.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clar. Weatherspoon	32	32	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.05	4	-11	15	16.7	15.9	0.74	17.3	15.3	2.09
Rex Walters	26	25	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-9	11	14.5	16.9	-2.43	14.8	16.4	-1.61
Keith Askins	28	30	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.06	0	-7	7	17.5	15.6	1.87	16.0	16.0	-0.00
Mark Strickland	10	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.01	-3	-4	1	19.2	15.8	3.40	16.9	15.9	1.04
Dan Majerle	79	79	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.29	-4	-3	-1	15.8	19.2	-3.40	15.9	16.9	-1.04
Terry Porter	62	61	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.22	-9	2	-11	15.4	18.1	-2.72	15.8	16.4	-0.61
Tim Hardaway	65	67	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.27	-8	1	-9	16.5	15.3	1.16	16.2	15.5	0.70
P.J. Brown	62	65	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.33	-6	-1	-5	16.6	15.3	1.27	16.5	14.6	1.94
Alonzo Mourning	81	80	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.23	-11	4	-15	16.2	16.1	0.06	15.4	20.9	-5.51

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	55	55	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.25	7	0	7	15.7	16.4	-0.70	16.4	15.8	0.67
Terrell Brandon	81	77	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.26	6	1	5	16.2	13.9	2.35	16.2	15.8	0.40
Dean Garrett	50	46	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	5	-3	16.2	15.8	0.36	15.9	16.5	-0.55
James Robinson	37	38	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.23	4	3	1	15.5	16.3	-0.78	13.9	17.8	-3.90
Sam Mitchell	80	78	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.31	0	7	-7	16.0	15.9	0.11	16.4	14.9	1.45
Bobby Jackson	27	29	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.00	8	-1	9	14.7	16.5	-1.80	15.9	16.3	-0.42
Dennis Scott	44	45	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	7	-7	16.0	16.0	-0.09	16.9	15.4	1.52
Andrae Patterson	7	7	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.01	4	3	1	13.1	16.2	-3.10	12.6	16.5	-3.92
Tom Hammonds	32	30	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	4	-1	17.2	15.3	1.89	16.6	16.0	0.63
Bill Curley	36	38	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	6	-5	16.9	15.4	1.53	18.1	14.7	3.36
Reggie Jordan	1	2	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	7	-7	4.0	16.1	-12.13	5.5	16.4	-10.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.92,0.85,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.71,0.82,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 98, LAL 102	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.59,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.8,0.87,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.85,0.82,1	93.2%
PHX 85, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.75,0.72,0.53,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.91,1	93.1%
TOR 106, IND 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.82,0.77,0.77,0.67,0.73,0.81,0.89,0.83,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.8,0.73,0.56,0.85,0.77,0.85,1	93.1%