NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	99		Excitement	7.8 [284]		MVP	Paul Pierce (WAS): +22.5%
Washington Wizards	106		Comeback	2.1 [657]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -20.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Patterson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.06	0.02	5	83%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.02	7	78%	0.15	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.05
Terrence Ross	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	9	56%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.06	-0.06	0.02	29	49%	0.01	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.06
Tyler Hansbrough	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Greivis Vasquez	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	11	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	10	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.20	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.18,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.25,-0.2	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	22	33%	-0.16	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.22	0.22	0.14	0.09	-0.00	9	82%	0.26	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Otto Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.21,0.2	0.20	0.05	0.16	0.00	6	79%	0.26	2	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.01	0.04	15	69%	0.20	3	-0.13	5	40%	-0.07
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	12	52%	0.05	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.04
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.00	9	57%	0.05	1	-0.05	3	33%	-0.04
John Wall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.08,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.04	-0.02	15	47%	0.12	5	-0.13	10	90%	0.03
Nene	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.8	32.5	16.7	30.8	2.8	49.1	160.3
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +72.4%

WAS +8.0%

TOR -9.1%

TOR -28.1%

WAS +6.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	WAS	NBA	TOR	WAS	NBA
this game	14.9	14.2	15.1	101.0	106.0	104.2
season	15.6	15.1		109.1	102.9
opponent	15.3	15.0		101.7	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.1	15.0	17.2	12.5	14.9
WAS	13.2	15.6	14.1	14.1	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	50	50	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-9	11	16.1	13.6	2.52	13.9	14.5	-0.54
Tyler Hansbrough	22	23	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-7	7	15.9	14.6	1.26	14.7	14.1	0.63
Greivis Vasquez	34	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.00	-8	1	-9	16.6	14.0	2.69	13.9	14.4	-0.45
Terrence Ross	61	63	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.28	1	-8	9	14.0	16.3	-2.22	14.5	13.8	0.72
Lou Williams	36	37	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.02	-8	1	-9	16.4	14.0	2.33	13.6	14.6	-0.93
Kyle Lowry	78	79	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-7	7	14.4	16.7	-2.28	14.6	12.9	1.65
Amir Johnson	68	67	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-4	1	14.1	16.6	-2.47	14.9	12.8	2.17
DeMar DeRozan	85	88	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	-1	-5	14.6	16.8	-2.26	13.9	16.4	-2.51
Patrick Patterson	56	59	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.28	-13	6	-19	14.3	15.6	-1.32	13.7	15.0	-1.30

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Otto Porter	70	69	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.20	17	-10	27	13.9	14.9	-0.99	14.5	15.7	-1.19
John Wall	92	90	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.29	8	-1	9	13.9	17.4	-3.44	14.6	18.1	-3.52
Marcin Gortat	89	86	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	3	1	14.0	16.1	-2.11	14.5	17.4	-2.88
Paul Pierce	59	57	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.34	1	6	-5	14.4	14.0	0.44	14.0	16.1	-2.08
Bradley Beal	85	84	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.31	1	6	-5	15.0	9.7	5.35	14.7	16.2	-1.55
Ramon Sessions	23	22	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.00	5	2	3	12.3	14.8	-2.42	16.9	14.3	2.61
Drew Gooden	37	35	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	5	-3	14.0	14.3	-0.38	16.7	13.9	2.84
Nene	45	47	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	10	-13	15.1	13.5	1.60	15.7	14.1	1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.68,0.53,0.47,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.93,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 91, DEN 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.68,0.68,0.63,0.7,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.68,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.85,0.96,1	92.0%
MIA 98, PHX 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.85,0.91,0.83,1	92.0%
CHH 93, NJN 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.93,0.99,1,1	92.0%