NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	91		Excitement	7.7 [287]		MVP	Raef LaFrentz (DEN): +28.7%
Denver Nuggets	96		Comeback	1.8 [713]		LVP	Andre Miller (CLE): -21.1%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.10	-0.00	6	50%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	6	69%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Chris Mihm	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.01	8	68%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Bryant Stith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jumaine Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	12	42%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lamond Murray	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.01	-0.11	0.01	11	61%	-0.03	3	-0.10	6	83%	-0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.22,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	12	32%	-0.17	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Andre Miller	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21	-0.11	-0.09	0.01	18	37%	-0.10	2	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.18	0.12	0.01	18	74%	0.33	1	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.06	0.00	5	100%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.07	0.01	10	50%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	7	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	7	31%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	24	48%	0.04	3	-0.08	6	67%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.04	-0.03	7	29%	-0.05	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.0	2.4	24.6	16.4	25.3	2.4	27.3	119.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +60.6%

CLE -10.7%

CLE -4.0%

DEN +1.3%

DEN +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	DEN	NBA	CLE	DEN	NBA
this game	15.7	17.0	15.6	103.4	109.1	102.3
season	15.8	16.1		102.6	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.5		105.9	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.4	16.6	14.0	18.6	15.7
DEN	15.0	16.1	16.6	21.4	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryant Stith	18	17	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-4	3	16.2	15.5	0.68	16.6	17.1	-0.49
Chris Mihm	47	46	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-3	1	14.9	16.6	-1.69	15.5	18.8	-3.28
Bimbo Coles	37	37	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	2	-9	16.7	14.9	1.81	15.9	17.9	-1.99
Ricky Davis	30	29	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-5	5	16.3	15.4	0.94	17.7	16.7	1.01
Jumaine Jones	68	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.43	3	-8	11	15.5	16.4	-0.93	17.6	15.0	2.61
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	41	41	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	-2	-1	16.6	14.9	1.69	19.0	15.4	3.61
Lamond Murray	69	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.28	-4	-1	-3	15.6	15.9	-0.34	16.6	18.5	-1.89
Wesley Person	71	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.21	-8	3	-11	15.6	15.9	-0.32	17.1	16.6	0.51
Andre Miller	59	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.37	-3	-2	-1	14.9	17.2	-2.22	17.1	16.9	0.28

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	76	78	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.43	8	-3	11	17.5	14.1	3.43	16.1	12.2	3.93
Raef LaFrentz	62	63	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.42	8	-3	11	16.9	17.5	-0.65	16.1	14.7	1.40
Calbert Cheaney	65	65	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.36	6	-1	7	17.2	16.7	0.53	15.8	15.3	0.45
Avery Johnson	42	42	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.16	10	-5	15	17.6	16.5	1.14	16.6	14.8	1.79
James Posey	72	72	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.34	-2	7	-9	16.9	17.7	-0.86	15.7	15.7	-0.01
Voshon Lenard	45	44	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.12	8	-3	11	16.0	18.2	-2.23	15.1	16.2	-1.09
Ryan Bowen	52	51	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.24	-10	15	-25	16.9	17.3	-0.44	14.5	17.2	-2.69
Scott Williams	26	25	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.07	-3	8	-11	17.5	16.9	0.65	14.7	16.1	-1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.68,0.68,0.63,0.7,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.68,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.85,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 94, IND 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.57,0.67,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.72,0.69,0.78,0.78,0.96,1	92.6%
HOU 86, CHH 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.38,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.75,0.55,0.77,0.93,1	92.4%
SAS 79, MIN 87	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.5,0.49,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.67,0.77,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.45,0.67,0.95,1	92.2%