NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	90		Excitement	8.7 [163]		MVP	Jerryd Bayless (MIL): +29.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	92		Comeback	2.2 [294]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -36.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.22	0.05	0.03	17	87%	0.37	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.03
Pau Gasol	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.21	-0.03	0.23	-0.01	10	59%	0.36	5	-0.14	7	86%	0.04
Mike Dunleavy	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	5	100%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	7	44%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Kirk Hinrich	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Joakim Noah	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	5	33%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Tony Snell	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	7	36%	-0.05	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.36	0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.23,-0.18,-0.22,-0.27,-0.25,-0.25,-0.2,-0.36	-0.13	-0.23	0.00	13	50%	0.02	8	-0.38	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.29	0.29	-0.01	0.30	-0.00	10	40%	0.29	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.04	-0.01	11	75%	0.23	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	9	72%	0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.03	0.00	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	7	37%	-0.01	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.02	11	37%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	15	32%	-0.04	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	11	36%	-0.02	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	2.8	39.0	16.8	27.2	3.5	38.0	154.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI -0.7%

CHI -9.6%

MIL +7.2%

MIL +49.0%

MIL +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	15.9	14.4	15.1	94.7	96.8	104.2
season	15.5	14.5		105.4	100.5
opponent	15.7	15.2		101.0	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.4	16.4	14.8	17.2	15.9
MIL	14.0	12.4	14.5	17.0	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pau Gasol	67	69	0.49	-0.99	1.49	-0.04	18	-20	38	14.7	18.8	-4.07	15.0	12.8	2.19
Mike Dunleavy	68	71	0.33	-0.83	1.17	-0.11	15	-17	32	15.0	18.3	-3.33	15.0	12.6	2.38
Nikola Mirotic	38	37	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-4	6	16.9	15.2	1.68	15.2	13.9	1.38
Derrick Rose	79	79	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.47	14	-16	30	15.0	20.4	-5.44	14.8	12.6	2.21
Jimmy Butler	80	80	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.54	14	-16	30	15.5	18.3	-2.79	14.8	12.1	2.69
Tony Snell	15	15	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.10	-16	14	-30	18.3	15.5	2.79	12.1	14.8	-2.69
Kirk Hinrich	2	1	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.34	-2	0	-2	9.0	16.1	-7.06	1.0	14.5	-13.54
Aaron Brooks	16	16	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.03	-16	14	-30	20.4	15.0	5.44	12.6	14.8	-2.21
Taj Gibson	50	49	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.41	-16	14	-30	16.7	15.0	1.66	12.8	16.1	-3.35
Joakim Noah	60	58	-1.10	0.60	-1.69	-0.42	-23	21	-44	17.3	13.6	3.67	14.0	15.0	-0.98

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
O.J. Mayo	44	44	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.37	13	-11	24	14.8	14.0	0.82	17.2	14.8	2.44
Jared Dudley	54	55	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.37	12	-10	22	14.6	14.1	0.45	16.8	14.7	2.14
Jerryd Bayless	49	48	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.36	6	-4	10	14.3	14.5	-0.11	16.9	15.0	1.90
Khris Middleton	92	92	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.47	2	0	2	14.5	11.7	2.82	16.0	14.0	1.98
John Henson	47	48	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.49	-7	9	-16	15.3	13.6	1.69	16.0	15.8	0.21
Zaza Pachulia	48	47	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.05	9	-7	16	13.6	15.3	-1.69	15.8	16.0	-0.21
Ersan Ilyasova	35	34	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.06	-3	5	-8	14.6	14.3	0.27	15.3	16.3	-1.01
Michael Carter-Williams	52	53	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.09	-11	13	-24	14.1	14.7	-0.59	14.5	17.6	-3.10
Giannis Antetokounmpo	54	54	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	0.05	-11	13	-24	13.9	15.1	-1.18	14.7	17.5	-2.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.32,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.8,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.82,0.93,0.9,0.84,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 117, ATL 129	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.58,0.71,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.55,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.81,0.64,0.7,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.91,1,1	92.1%
UTA 71, LAL 82	0.5,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.8,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.78,0.9,0.98,1,1,1	91.7%
MIN 93, NYK 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.72,0.72,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.6,0.53,0.76,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.9,0.95,1	91.6%