NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	117		Excitement	7.1 [399]		MVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): +27.2%
Atlanta Hawks	129		Comeback	1.7 [1086]		LVP	Lindsey Hunter (CHI): -2.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.04	-0.01	22	65%	0.26	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.05
Tyrus Thomas	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.08	0.01	8	62%	0.15	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Derrick Rose	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	0.00	0.03	19	61%	0.13	2	-0.06	6	33%	-0.06
Thabo Sefolosha	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.01	0.01	8	87%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	9	52%	0.08	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.03
Larry Hughes	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.04	8	61%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Cedric Simmons	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.19	0.11	0.03	31	60%	0.30	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.15	0.06	0.03	8	94%	0.21	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.07	0.04	14	65%	0.19	2	-0.05	9	78%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.00	7	71%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.01	10	64%	0.13	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	1	125%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	10	45%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mario West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	1.8	33.2	15.4	26.4	1.8	35.2	142.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +40.0%

CHI -11.8%

ATL +6.8%

ATL +8.9%

ATL +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ATL	NBA	CHI	ATL	NBA
this game	15.6	16.2	15.5	130.0	141.8	106.4
season	14.8	15.8		106.3	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.7		106.0	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.0	15.4	16.9	16.4	15.6
ATL	15.4	14.6	17.4	17.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thabo Sefolosha	67	67	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.01	1	-13	14	15.2	16.7	-1.47	16.1	16.6	-0.49
Joakim Noah	11	10	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-12	12	15.7	15.6	0.14	16.3	16.2	0.09
Cedric Simmons	6	6	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-9	6	22.3	15.1	7.21	17.7	16.1	1.55
Lindsey Hunter	8	9	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	-6	0	22.4	14.9	7.44	14.6	16.4	-1.85
Tyrus Thomas	64	64	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-12	12	14.8	17.5	-2.67	15.8	17.1	-1.32
Aaron Gray	59	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.05	-6	-6	0	15.0	16.8	-1.79	16.3	16.1	0.19
Larry Hughes	37	38	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.14	-8	-4	-4	16.3	15.1	1.23	17.1	15.6	1.52
Derrick Rose	79	80	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	-2	-8	15.1	19.5	-4.49	16.3	15.4	0.97
Andres Nocioni	40	42	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.02	-15	3	-18	16.7	14.7	1.98	16.5	16.0	0.52
Ben Gordon	79	79	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.18	-13	1	-14	15.4	16.7	-1.28	16.0	17.8	-1.86

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	83	83	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.16	15	-3	18	16.4	14.6	1.75	15.6	15.3	0.34
Josh Smith	66	66	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.07	14	-2	16	16.0	16.8	-0.74	14.7	18.0	-3.22
Zaza Pachulia	35	35	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	0	12	17.1	15.7	1.45	18.3	13.9	4.44
Marvin Williams	67	66	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	1	10	16.4	15.7	0.64	15.6	15.7	-0.09
Mike Bibby	69	68	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.17	6	6	0	15.8	17.5	-1.63	14.9	17.8	-2.94
Al Horford	72	70	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.14	0	12	-12	16.3	16.0	0.28	15.4	16.4	-1.03
Ronald Murray	38	36	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	11	-10	15.9	16.4	-0.51	16.3	15.1	1.22
Solomon Jones	2	2	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.00	1	11	-10	8.0	16.4	-8.40	17.5	15.6	1.94
Mario West	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	12	-12	23.0	16.1	6.86	7.5	15.8	-8.28
Maurice Evans	22	22	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.03	0	12	-12	16.3	16.2	0.13	16.1	15.4	0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.58,0.71,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.55,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.81,0.64,0.7,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.91,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 111, ATL 116	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.5,0.5,0.58,0.67,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.79,0.72,0.78,0.75,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.91,1	92.8%
MIN 88, SAS 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.75,0.67,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.9,0.98,1,1,1,1	92.6%
UTA 71, LAL 82	0.5,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.8,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.78,0.9,0.98,1,1,1	92.2%