NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	103		Excitement	5.9 [645]		MVP	Vince Carter (DAL): +22.9%
San Antonio Spurs	109		Comeback	1.1 [1071]		LVP	Shawn Marion (DAL): -9.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.22	0.05	0.05	16	82%	0.25	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Brandan Wright	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	3	57%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Jose Calderon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	9	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.07	-0.00	20	57%	0.06	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
Jae Crowder	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	11	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	0.04	-0.04	0.05	18	52%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	-0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	10	30%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tiago Splitter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.03	-0.00	10	65%	0.15	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.01	10	65%	0.11	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	14	56%	0.09	1	-0.04	6	67%	0.01
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	2	150%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	4	67%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	0.00	23	46%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.01	16	44%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	3.5	32.4	18.4	29.3	2.8	40.1	154.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +28.4%

SAS +2.0%

SAS +15.2%

SAS +5.2%

DAL -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.2	15.7	15.1	110.8	117.2	105.2
season	15.3	15.0		109.0	109.8
opponent	15.0	15.0		101.1	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.5	14.8	17.0	13.8	15.2
SAS	15.8	16.5	15.0	15.6	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	14	15	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.04	1	-7	8	17.0	14.9	2.08	15.1	15.8	-0.71
Vince Carter	53	54	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.36	10	-16	26	14.7	15.9	-1.25	15.4	16.2	-0.82
Brandan Wright	46	47	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.26	6	-12	18	15.8	14.6	1.21	15.5	16.0	-0.53
Devin Harris	56	56	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.37	7	-13	20	15.2	15.3	-0.06	15.1	16.7	-1.61
Shawn Marion	46	46	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	1	-8	15.7	14.8	0.82	16.5	15.0	1.56
Samuel Dalembert	42	41	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.02	-13	7	-20	15.5	15.0	0.57	17.2	14.5	2.71
Jose Calderon	53	52	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.06	-12	6	-18	14.6	16.1	-1.47	15.7	15.7	-0.00
Monta Ellis	79	78	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.28	-7	1	-8	14.9	17.0	-2.08	15.8	15.1	0.71
Dirk Nowitzki	76	76	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.17	-15	9	-24	15.3	15.1	0.22	15.3	17.6	-2.27

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kawhi Leonard	68	68	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.21	13	-7	20	15.5	16.3	-0.75	15.6	14.2	1.47
Tim Duncan	71	71	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.09	14	-8	22	16.4	13.5	2.86	15.4	14.7	0.73
Tony Parker	74	75	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.33	3	3	0	15.7	15.7	0.06	15.0	16.4	-1.43
Tiago Splitter	60	61	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.14	9	-3	12	16.5	14.4	2.12	15.8	14.1	1.69
Manu Ginobili	60	59	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.35	-1	7	-8	15.2	16.7	-1.50	14.8	15.9	-1.06
Danny Green	32	34	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.11	12	-6	18	14.2	16.6	-2.40	14.2	15.8	-1.58
Patty Mills	29	29	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	5	-4	16.2	15.5	0.64	16.2	14.8	1.36
Matt Bonner	7	6	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	1	4	13.1	15.9	-2.80	18.0	15.0	2.95
Boris Diaw	43	43	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.40	-15	21	-36	15.1	16.2	-1.10	14.7	15.7	-1.00
Marco Belinelli	21	19	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.15	-11	17	-28	17.3	15.3	2.01	14.3	15.5	-1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 83, CLE 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.97,0.98,1	94.3%
DAL 94, IND 95	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.94,0.86,0.83,0.95,0.95,1	94.2%
GSW 95, HOU 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.73,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.8,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.82,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.94,0.99,1	93.9%