NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	88		Excitement	8.4 [193]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +39.0%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	1.7 [866]		LVP	Danny Green (SAS): -22.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Boris Diaw	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	2	125%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.00	17	50%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.01	12	64%	0.22	4	-0.17	4	100%	0.03
Tiago Splitter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	7	36%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.08,-0.1	0.04	-0.13	0.00	18	55%	0.01	3	-0.11	8	100%	0.06
Tony Parker	-0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.08	-0.11	0.00	12	36%	-0.11	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Danny Green	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.15	-0.10	-0.03	12	19%	-0.14	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.39	0.39	0.22	0.19	0.02	23	69%	0.44	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.04
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.21	0.11	0.00	8	112%	0.32	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	21	52%	0.06	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	4	0%	-0.08	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	15	41%	-0.03	4	-0.11	4	25%	-0.15
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	5	0%	-0.04	2	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	0.7	35.9	16.8	30.1	2.8	41.4	155.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +72.6%

SAS -29.7%

MIA +7.2%

MIA +0.3%

SAS -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	14.7	16.4	15.4	95.7	102.2	104.1
season	15.2	15.7		106.4	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.1		102.4	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.0	13.3	16.2	13.4	14.7
MIA	16.8	16.7	15.1	17.1	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Joseph	0	1	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-7	7	0.0	14.7	-14.70	21.0	16.4	4.62
Tiago Splitter	7	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.04	-6	-1	-5	16.4	14.6	1.88	20.9	16.0	4.86
Manu Ginobili	68	67	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.37	6	-13	19	14.1	16.3	-2.22	16.8	15.4	1.40
Danny Green	71	72	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-7	7	14.5	15.3	-0.76	16.3	16.9	-0.61
Tim Duncan	83	84	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.31	2	-9	11	14.6	16.0	-1.45	16.1	19.7	-3.58
Gary Neal	50	51	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	0	-7	14.6	14.8	-0.17	16.5	16.4	0.05
Tony Parker	70	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	-3	-1	15.1	13.5	1.57	16.8	15.3	1.55
Boris Diaw	24	24	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.03	-18	11	-29	15.5	14.4	1.09	15.5	16.7	-1.20
Kawhi Leonard	87	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.27	-8	1	-9	14.8	12.8	2.00	16.0	23.2	-7.15

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	54	55	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.17	12	-5	17	16.9	15.7	1.18	14.1	15.5	-1.37
LeBron James	88	87	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.27	8	-1	9	16.0	23.2	-7.15	14.8	12.8	2.00
Mario Chalmers	79	78	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.23	9	-2	11	16.4	16.5	-0.08	14.6	15.0	-0.36
Chris Bosh	53	53	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.34	1	6	-5	16.2	16.7	-0.52	14.7	14.7	0.01
Dwyane Wade	75	75	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.36	-2	9	-11	16.9	14.7	2.19	14.7	14.8	-0.16
Chris Andersen	37	35	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.07	11	-4	15	16.5	16.4	0.09	15.5	14.2	1.37
Ray Allen	37	36	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	1	5	16.5	16.4	0.14	14.6	14.7	-0.14
Mike Miller	39	37	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.13	-5	12	-17	15.7	16.9	-1.18	15.5	14.1	1.37
Udonis Haslem	3	4	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.02	-5	12	-17	19.7	16.3	3.34	7.2	15.0	-7.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.87,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.77,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 102, BOS 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.83,0.71,0.72,0.85,0.78,0.77,0.92,1	92.8%
BKN 111, CHA 116	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.58,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.36,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.74,0.6,0.78,0.75,0.96,0.89,0.91,1	92.7%
PHI 88, CHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.56,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.89,0.96,1	92.2%