NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	102		Excitement	7.6 [307]		MVP	Todd Day (BOS): +23.4%
Boston Celtics	109		Comeback	2.1 [696]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -21.8%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Person	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	0.00	8	71%	0.15	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
Wayman Tisdale	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hot Rod Williams	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	5	69%	0.06	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Joe Kleine	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rex Chapman	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	14	46%	0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Mark Bryant	-0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.07	-0.13	0.02	12	75%	0.03	3	-0.11	8	75%	-0.03
Steve Nash	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	12	58%	0.13	5	-0.23	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Johnson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.03	16	42%	-0.03	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Robert Horry	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	4	40%	-0.04	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.07,0.03,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.05	0.18	0.00	18	62%	0.35	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	12	65%	0.08	1	-0.04	10	100%	0.06
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	60%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Brett Szabo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rick Fox	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.01	13	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Greg Minor	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	13	41%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Alton Lister	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.05	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.04
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.13	-0.09	0.00	13	37%	-0.12	3	-0.10	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.0	24.4	16.4	26.4	1.7	30.2	127.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX -6.2%

BOS +20.5%

PHX -4.2%

BOS +40.8%

PHX -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	BOS	NBA	PHX	BOS	NBA
this game	13.9	13.6	15.6	98.1	103.8	104.4
season	14.6	14.8		106.8	101.8
opponent	14.7	15.6		109.5	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	12.5	14.5	14.2	14.8	13.9
BOS	13.2	12.7	13.5	15.2	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hot Rod Williams	51	49	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.16	6	-13	19	14.5	13.4	1.02	14.1	13.2	0.93
Wayman Tisdale	17	17	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	-3	-1	14.6	13.8	0.85	12.4	13.9	-1.45
Steve Nash	14	16	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	-3	-1	15.6	13.7	1.89	10.4	14.2	-3.76
Joe Kleine	12	13	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-3	-1	13.0	14.1	-1.05	13.7	13.6	0.07
Rex Chapman	80	80	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.12	-2	-5	3	13.9	13.9	0.02	13.5	14.0	-0.49
Robert Horry	43	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.17	-6	-1	-5	14.3	13.7	0.67	13.0	14.1	-1.08
Mark Bryant	77	80	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.29	-2	-5	3	13.3	15.8	-2.49	13.8	13.0	0.88
Kevin Johnson	91	89	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.32	-3	-4	1	13.6	15.9	-2.27	14.2	10.3	3.91
Wesley Person	66	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.23	-6	-1	-5	14.0	13.7	0.31	13.6	13.7	-0.06
Danny Manning	69	69	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.26	-10	3	-13	13.9	13.9	0.03	13.9	13.2	0.66

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marty Conlon	62	61	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.23	11	-4	15	13.5	13.8	-0.35	13.6	14.4	-0.75
David Wesley	85	85	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.36	5	2	3	13.8	12.7	1.09	14.0	13.8	0.11
Todd Day	58	57	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.23	8	-1	9	13.9	13.3	0.56	13.3	14.7	-1.37
Rick Fox	57	56	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.01	8	-1	9	13.6	13.6	0.04	13.7	14.2	-0.47
Eric Williams	56	57	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.25	-1	8	-9	14.5	12.7	1.83	13.1	15.0	-1.95
Brett Szabo	10	9	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.04	2	5	-3	9.0	14.1	-5.12	15.8	13.8	2.02
Alton Lister	14	13	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	7	-7	14.2	13.5	0.68	17.0	13.5	3.51
Antoine Walker	79	78	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.09	-4	11	-15	13.5	14.2	-0.70	14.1	13.4	0.68
Greg Minor	50	50	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.11	-6	13	-19	13.8	13.4	0.40	14.4	13.5	0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.83,0.71,0.72,0.85,0.78,0.77,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 88, MIA 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.73,0.83,0.76,0.87,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.77,1	92.8%
CLE 69, TOR 75	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.63,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.57,0.91,1	92.2%
MEM 91, MIA 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.66,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.63,0.91,0.84,1	91.9%