NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	114		Excitement	3.8 [1074]		MVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): +15.2%
Indiana Pacers	96		Comeback	1.1 [884]		LVP	Paul George (IND): -8.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.02	0.01	9	89%	0.17	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
LeBron James	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.01	-0.01	17	55%	0.10	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Mario Chalmers	0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.02	6	74%	0.10	0	0.00	7	86%	0.03
Chris Andersen	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.01	4	90%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	14	58%	0.09	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Chris Bosh	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.12	-0.00	0.06	10	71%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	58%	0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Ray Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	17%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
James Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.12	-0.00	0.03	10	70%	0.10	1	-0.01	7	86%	0.01
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.02	12	51%	0.08	2	-0.03	15	80%	0.01
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orlando Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	3	12%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Hansbrough	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	16	52%	0.01	2	-0.01	8	62%	0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	7	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	10	32%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Paul George	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	10	46%	-0.00	5	-0.09	8	62%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	3.6	38.2	19.8	32.2	3.4	35.6	160.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.9%

MIA +3.0%

IND -6.0%

MIA +8.9%

MIA +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	16.4	16.5	15.4	129.5	110.3	104.1
season	15.7	16.1		110.2	102.4
opponent	15.5	15.9		99.0	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.8	17.1	17.2	16.7	16.4
IND	16.5	17.1	17.1	15.3	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	77	76	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.12	22	-4	26	16.0	19.5	-3.57	16.6	16.0	0.57
Shane Battier	37	37	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.05	16	2	14	16.5	16.3	0.21	17.4	15.8	1.59
Udonis Haslem	43	44	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.03	9	9	0	15.4	17.4	-1.96	16.3	16.7	-0.36
Ray Allen	32	33	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.12	14	4	10	16.7	16.3	0.37	17.0	16.2	0.77
Norris Cole	28	28	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.08	12	6	6	16.5	16.4	0.06	15.7	16.8	-1.10
Mario Chalmers	51	51	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.01	9	9	0	16.2	16.7	-0.53	16.9	15.9	0.94
Dwyane Wade	65	63	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	14	-10	16.6	16.0	0.63	16.7	16.0	0.74
Chris Andersen	40	37	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.09	10	8	2	17.3	15.6	1.70	17.4	15.8	1.63
Chris Bosh	44	44	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.10	-3	21	-24	16.4	16.4	0.02	16.7	16.3	0.47
Rashard Lewis	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	19	-20	17.7	16.3	1.34	12.0	16.8	-4.83
James Jones	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	16	-14	17.4	16.4	1.04	10.7	16.8	-6.02
Mike Miller	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	19	-20	17.7	16.3	1.34	12.0	16.8	-4.83
Joel Anthony	6	6	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	21	-24	17.7	16.3	1.34	12.0	16.8	-4.83

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Green	6	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-16	14	12.0	16.8	-4.83	15.9	16.5	-0.60
Orlando Johnson	6	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-16	14	12.0	16.8	-4.83	15.9	16.5	-0.60
Jeff Ayres	6	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-16	14	12.0	16.8	-4.83	15.9	16.5	-0.60
Ben Hansbrough	6	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-16	14	12.0	16.8	-4.83	15.6	16.5	-0.92
Ian Mahinmi	12	11	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.05	0	-18	18	19.9	15.9	3.97	21.1	15.8	5.34
Tyler Hansbrough	22	25	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.18	-11	-7	-4	15.2	16.9	-1.70	15.3	16.9	-1.54
Lance Stephenson	61	61	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-20	22	16.7	16.0	0.65	16.7	15.7	1.03
D.J. Augustin	24	22	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.16	-14	-4	-10	17.6	16.1	1.50	17.4	16.1	1.26
Sam Young	15	15	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.09	-12	-6	-6	17.0	16.4	0.61	15.1	16.7	-1.63
George Hill	68	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	-9	-9	0	16.7	15.7	0.97	16.2	17.1	-0.94
David West	64	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.18	-5	-13	8	17.2	14.6	2.56	17.0	14.9	2.13
Roy Hibbert	69	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.02	-16	-2	-14	16.3	17.3	-0.99	15.7	18.9	-3.16
Paul George	76	76	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.00	-17	-1	-16	16.6	16.0	0.57	16.4	16.6	-0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.2,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 93, WAS 72	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.43,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.29,0.17,0.18,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
MIL 82, TOR 62	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.17,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
DET 96, MEM 74	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%