NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	87		Excitement	9.7 [75]		MVP	Jarrett Jack (GSW): +11.5%
Golden State Warriors	97		Comeback	9.9 [104]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -25.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	-0.03	0.13	-0.00	17	42%	0.13	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Tiago Splitter	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Cory Joseph	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	3	33%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	0.04	-0.14	0.00	18	55%	-0.03	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Boris Diaw	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15	-0.04	-0.09	0.02	13	36%	-0.15	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.09
Kawhi Leonard	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	11	42%	-0.03	3	-0.12	4	75%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	-0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.11	-0.14	-0.00	22	36%	-0.24	1	-0.01	9	56%	-0.06

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.05	0.02	16	63%	0.15	2	-0.04	6	83%	-0.00
Klay Thompson	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.05	0.14	0.01	13	38%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	3	37%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.11	-0.10	0.04	15	67%	0.04	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
David Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Festus Ezeli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	5	42%	0.03	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.18,-0.18,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	0.02	26	44%	0.02	4	-0.13	7	100%	0.06
Carl Landry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	9	29%	-0.09	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	28.4	3.5	37.2	17.7	29.3	3.0	37.6	2.7	21.4	180.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	2.0	17.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +30.1%

GSW +21.4%

GSW +17.3%

SAS -14.5%

SAS -4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	16.0	15.2	15.4	87.0	93.3	104.1
season	15.2	14.6		106.4	104.6
opponent	15.3	15.1		103.7	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	14.0	16.4	15.4	17.6	19.2	16.0
GSW	13.7	14.9	14.6	17.6	16.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Neal	34	35	0.37	-0.87	1.23	0.16	7	-17	24	15.1	16.5	-1.37	15.6	14.9	0.69
Tiago Splitter	37	38	0.32	-0.82	1.14	0.12	7	-17	24	15.5	16.3	-0.85	15.2	15.2	0.06
Boris Diaw	24	25	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.06	4	-14	18	13.8	16.7	-2.93	15.0	15.2	-0.23
Matt Bonner	6	7	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-12	14	15.0	16.1	-1.09	14.1	15.2	-1.10
Cory Joseph	16	18	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-12	14	14.9	16.2	-1.29	15.1	15.2	-0.14
Manu Ginobili	66	71	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-10	10	15.2	17.6	-2.38	16.2	12.9	3.32
Kawhi Leonard	85	88	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.17	-11	1	-12	16.3	14.6	1.67	15.3	14.4	0.94
Tony Parker	78	79	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.30	-13	3	-16	16.2	15.5	0.61	14.6	16.9	-2.25
Danny Green	74	75	-0.93	0.43	-1.37	-0.20	-25	15	-40	17.3	12.5	4.81	15.0	15.7	-0.67
Tim Duncan	80	84	-1.12	0.62	-1.74	-0.44	-23	13	-36	16.7	13.2	3.53	14.8	16.9	-2.14

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Bogut	56	53	0.89	-0.39	1.27	0.39	17	-7	24	15.2	15.1	0.13	16.6	15.4	1.20
Stephen Curry	74	75	0.65	-0.15	0.81	-0.02	23	-13	36	15.1	15.4	-0.37	16.5	14.7	1.73
Harrison Barnes	100	95	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.21	13	-3	16	15.2	14.0	1.22	16.1	13.6	2.55
Jarrett Jack	70	67	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.19	1	9	-8	15.9	13.6	2.27	16.2	15.7	0.53
Draymond Green	24	20	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.29	-6	16	-22	13.8	15.6	-1.80	15.2	16.2	-0.96
Carl Landry	48	46	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.18	9	1	8	14.4	15.8	-1.40	15.7	16.3	-0.56
Andris Biedrins	7	5	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	8	-6	11.3	15.5	-4.17	19.0	15.9	3.14
Richard Jefferson	9	10	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.03	1	9	-8	14.7	15.2	-0.55	16.8	15.9	0.87
Klay Thompson	91	88	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	12	-14	15.2	14.8	0.46	15.6	19.2	-3.58
Festus Ezeli	16	17	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.08	-6	16	-22	16.8	14.9	1.94	15.3	16.2	-0.87
David Lee	16	16	-0.45	0.95	-1.41	-0.10	-12	22	-34	15.7	15.1	0.61	12.6	16.7	-4.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.32,0.41,0.24,0.13,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.54,0.81,0.85,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 126, PHX 133	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.24,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.27,0.31,0.24,0.18,0.24,0.36,0.43,0.26,0.54,0.69,0.79,0.9,1,1	91.3%
PHI 109, DET 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.46,0.21,0.15,0.17,0.54,0.75,0.72,0.97,0.99,1	91.2%
UTA 98, OKC 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.2,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.38,0.23,0.14,0.15,0.27,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.16,0.54,0.81,0.79,0.97,0.99,1	90.4%