NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	104		Excitement	6.8 [431]		MVP	Norris Cole (MIA): +29.4%
Chicago Bulls	94		Comeback	2.0 [879]		LVP	Ray Allen (MIA): -8.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Norris Cole	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.29	0.20	0.09	0.00	7	106%	0.29	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Chris Bosh	0.13	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.03	0.07	-0.03	16	56%	0.15	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.00	0.08	-0.00	3	62%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
LeBron James	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.03,0.05,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.08,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	17	56%	0.13	1	-0.05	11	100%	0.05
Shane Battier	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	-0.00	5	64%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	71%	0.10	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	6	60%	0.03	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Ray Allen	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	6	27%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	12	52%	0.07	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.07	-0.02	13	50%	0.13	3	-0.08	8	75%	0.02
Marquis Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	9	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.08	0.02	12	63%	0.06	2	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.03	0.04	16	62%	0.06	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.04
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.06	-0.01	13	53%	0.01	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.8	38.2	18.4	28.3	3.5	41.4	160.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.6%

MIA +12.7%

CHI -1.6%

MIA +2.3%

MIA +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	16.3	17.0	15.4	119.5	109.3	104.1
season	15.7	16.6		110.2	101.7
opponent	15.2	15.9		102.3	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.6	14.3	17.1	15.7	16.3
CHI	18.3	17.0	16.4	16.3	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norris Cole	45	43	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.24	9	1	8	16.2	16.5	-0.28	16.7	17.3	-0.58
Ray Allen	40	40	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.00	17	-7	24	16.0	16.6	-0.52	17.4	16.6	0.77
LeBron James	82	80	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.26	7	3	4	16.3	17.2	-0.92	16.8	18.5	-1.65
Chris Bosh	78	76	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	0	10	16.4	15.7	0.74	16.8	18.4	-1.62
Dwyane Wade	67	66	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.13	6	4	2	15.7	18.4	-2.75	16.3	19.2	-2.91
Chris Andersen	17	17	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.12	4	6	-2	18.2	15.9	2.36	18.4	16.6	1.80
Shane Battier	31	34	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	14	-18	17.1	15.9	1.19	17.6	16.5	1.08
Udonis Haslem	33	31	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.01	0	10	-10	16.2	16.4	-0.20	17.1	16.9	0.26
Mario Chalmers	42	43	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.04	1	9	-8	16.5	16.2	0.28	17.3	16.7	0.58

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	5	5	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.02	3	-13	16	14.8	17.1	-2.30	16.6	16.3	0.28
Marquis Teague	19	20	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	-7	4	16.9	17.0	-0.02	15.8	16.5	-0.63
Taj Gibson	40	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.05	-8	-2	-6	17.3	16.7	0.63	15.2	17.3	-2.09
Carlos Boozer	51	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-9	8	17.1	16.8	0.28	17.0	15.3	1.71
Marco Belinelli	78	77	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-6	2	17.0	16.5	0.51	16.6	14.1	2.52
Jimmy Butler	86	87	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	0	-10	17.0	0.0	16.97	16.3	0.0	16.33
Joakim Noah	76	77	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.16	-14	4	-18	16.9	17.8	-0.94	16.4	15.5	0.94
Nate Robinson	75	77	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.20	-13	3	-16	16.9	17.3	-0.35	16.2	17.6	-1.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.28,0.3,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.06,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 109, ORL 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.02,0	93.8%
LAC 112, GSW 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.11,0.01,0,0,0	93.5%
PHI 92, MIL 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.49,0.43,0.34,0.28,0.36,0.2,0.17,0.11,0.04,0.02,0.16,0	93.1%