NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	109		Excitement	6.8 [441]		MVP	Gary Payton (SEA): +31.5%
Orlando Magic	101		Comeback	2.4 [324]		LVP	Rony Seikaly (ORL): -16.7%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,0,0,0,0.05,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.31,0.31	0.13	0.18	-0.00	20	71%	0.42	3	-0.11	5	100%	0.03
Hersey Hawkins	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.05	-0.03	11	62%	0.15	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Greg Graham	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	87%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Sam Perkins	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.01	6	62%	0.05	0	0.00	9	89%	0.04
Jim McIlvaine	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Cummings	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	62%	0.02	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Shawn Kemp	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	14	52%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Craig Ehlo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	0.00	7	40%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Larry Stewart	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	75%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Nate McMillan	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	3	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.09	0.00	8	78%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	16	53%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.09	-0.03	0.03	13	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	60%	-0.01	1	-0.02	9	78%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	7	29%	-0.05	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	13	53%	-0.05	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.07	0.01	14	50%	-0.01	4	-0.16	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.3	32.3	17.8	25.2	3.4	37.6	143.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +48.0%

SEA +7.7%

ORL -29.0%

SEA +22.1%

SEA +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	ORL	NBA	SEA	ORL	NBA
this game	14.5	18.9	15.6	128.2	116.1	104.4
season	14.9	16.4		108.9	102.9
opponent	15.5	16.2		103.5	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	13.2	14.9	15.1	15.0	14.5
ORL	21.1	18.5	19.2	17.0	18.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Craig Ehlo	33	34	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.23	8	0	8	15.5	13.9	1.59	17.6	19.8	-2.20
Gary Payton	79	81	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.28	6	2	4	14.4	17.0	-2.65	19.2	15.0	4.19
Terry Cummings	28	28	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.18	9	-1	10	16.2	13.7	2.44	18.5	19.1	-0.64
Sam Perkins	40	40	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.11	7	1	6	14.3	14.8	-0.46	19.2	18.7	0.52
Shawn Kemp	71	73	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	3	2	14.1	17.0	-2.94	18.6	20.4	-1.74
Greg Graham	16	17	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	3	2	15.3	14.4	0.95	19.5	18.7	0.79
Nate McMillan	34	34	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	5	-2	15.0	14.2	0.81	16.4	20.5	-4.13
Hersey Hawkins	66	68	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.05	3	5	-2	14.2	15.9	-1.74	18.6	20.0	-1.41
Larry Stewart	35	37	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	8	-8	14.0	14.9	-0.92	21.7	16.8	4.93
Jim McIlvaine	23	23	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.11	-6	14	-20	14.4	14.6	-0.21	20.4	18.4	2.03

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Wilkins	35	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-4	0	18.5	19.1	-0.59	15.4	14.0	1.34
Nick Anderson	68	67	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-5	2	18.7	19.5	-0.74	14.2	15.7	-1.50
Derek Strong	32	33	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-4	0	18.3	19.2	-0.87	16.0	13.6	2.38
Rony Seikaly	64	61	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-3	-2	18.4	20.3	-1.91	15.0	13.2	1.80
Brian Shaw	30	30	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	2	-12	18.8	18.9	-0.10	16.8	13.3	3.49
Horace Grant	68	67	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.29	-2	-6	4	19.3	17.3	2.02	13.5	18.4	-4.95
Dennis Scott	64	62	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-3	-2	19.7	16.7	3.05	13.7	16.8	-3.13
Anfernee Hardaway	74	72	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.25	-7	-1	-6	18.8	19.4	-0.57	14.1	16.8	-2.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 85, HOU 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.33,0.32,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.15,0.02,0	93.9%
MIA 104, CHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.42,0.28,0.3,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.06,0,0	93.8%
DET 91, LAC 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.63,0.64,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.23,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.04,0,0	93.1%