NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	98		Excitement	7.3 [299]		MVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): +33.5%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	4.3 [377]		LVP	James Harden (OKC): -21.9%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Russell Westbrook	0.34	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.36,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.34	0.18	0.08	-0.07	32	64%	0.44	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.04
Kevin Durant	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.04	-0.01	19	60%	0.30	3	-0.16	9	100%	0.08
Nick Collison	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	7	36%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.13	-0.10	-0.01	10	33%	-0.10	4	-0.12	4	75%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.3	0.30	0.16	0.13	-0.01	15	71%	0.38	1	-0.08	5	80%	0.02
LeBron James	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.16,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.09	-0.01	20	54%	0.25	3	-0.13	8	62%	-0.04
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	12	52%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	19	53%	0.13	2	-0.06	9	78%	0.02
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.01	-0.05	4	40%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	3.7	30.2	17.3	31.6	4.4	40.7	154.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +48.1%

OKC -4.4%

MIA +3.2%

MIA +9.9%

OKC -6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIA	NBA	OKC	MIA	NBA
this game	14.3	17.2	15.6	107.7	113.0	102.8
season	14.7	15.5		107.9	105.6
opponent	15.8	15.8		98.8	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	12.2	17.5	16.8	11.4	14.3
MIA	17.8	17.6	16.0	17.4	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Perkins	34	34	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-10	14	15.9	13.3	2.55	15.6	18.2	-2.57
Nick Collison	35	35	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-6	6	13.2	14.9	-1.66	16.6	17.6	-0.98
Derek Fisher	41	41	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.08	-5	-1	-4	14.2	14.3	-0.02	18.3	16.4	1.92
Kevin Durant	89	89	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-6	6	14.1	21.0	-6.90	17.1	19.0	-1.85
Russell Westbrook	85	86	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.40	0	-6	6	14.6	10.0	4.55	17.3	16.0	1.29
Serge Ibaka	50	51	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.25	-6	0	-6	14.5	14.0	0.55	17.7	16.5	1.21
James Harden	69	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	-2	-2	13.6	16.2	-2.60	17.5	16.2	1.25
Thabo Sefolosha	52	53	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.21	-19	13	-32	14.3	14.2	0.04	16.9	17.6	-0.75

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	84	81	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.57	8	-2	10	17.3	16.6	0.64	15.0	8.5	6.46
Dwyane Wade	81	78	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.34	10	-4	14	17.1	18.2	-1.11	14.5	12.8	1.64
Chris Bosh	71	70	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.34	-2	8	-10	16.9	18.2	-1.27	14.8	12.5	2.25
Udonis Haslem	24	24	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.02	9	-3	12	17.3	17.2	0.12	11.2	15.3	-4.08
Mario Chalmers	66	66	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.37	-5	11	-16	16.9	17.9	-0.95	13.9	15.3	-1.42
Shane Battier	76	76	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.40	-7	13	-20	17.2	17.2	-0.05	14.3	14.2	0.06
Norris Cole	14	15	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.18	12	-6	18	17.9	17.1	0.77	13.9	14.3	-0.38
James Jones	38	38	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.24	8	-2	10	17.4	17.0	0.41	14.8	13.8	0.97
Mike Miller	6	7	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.03	-3	9	-12	21.3	16.9	4.41	9.7	14.6	-4.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.54,0.6,0.31,0.55,0.94,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 83, UTA 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.47,0.54,0.31,0.46,0.67,0.98,1	91.8%
NJN 105, MIA 106	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.52,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.96,1	90.9%
WAS 88, CHH 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.85,0.78,0.7,0.66,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.4,0.55,0.63,0.94,0.92,1	90.4%