NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	105		Excitement	7.8 [297]		MVP	Richard Jefferson (NJN): +27.3%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	3.1 [746]		LVP	Nenad Krstic (NJN): -14.6%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0.27	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.27	0.18	0.10	0.01	22	67%	0.29	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Vince Carter	0.14	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.14	0.11	0.03	0.00	25	56%	0.23	2	-0.10	9	67%	-0.06
Jacque Vaughn	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Lamond Murray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	-0.06	0.01	11	58%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
John Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Kidd	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.07	0.07	-0.15	-0.01	11	77%	0.17	4	-0.24	4	100%	0.03
Nenad Krstic	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	3	12%	-0.04	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.21	0.21	0.13	0.07	-0.00	17	64%	0.21	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.02	-0.04	7	67%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	4	92%	0.14	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	9	60%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	6	57%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.08
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.05	0.03	10	63%	0.03	4	-0.10	7	14%	-0.21
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.1,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	0.00	-0.01	19	45%	0.10	7	-0.22	9	67%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	3.5	34.3	20.5	25.6	3.5	44.3	159.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.6%

NJN -21.7%

MIA +25.1%

MIA +13.2%

MIA +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	MIA	NBA	NJN	MIA	NBA
this game	13.9	16.0	15.6	110.5	109.3	104.4
season	15.7	15.5		102.1	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.7		102.3	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	12.7	15.5	13.8	13.9	13.9
MIA	15.5	15.8	16.2	16.7	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Thomas	13	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	0	-1	14.3	13.9	0.43	15.6	16.1	-0.47
Jacque Vaughn	23	23	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.06	-5	4	-9	15.0	13.6	1.46	15.3	16.3	-0.91
Jason Collins	68	67	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-2	3	13.6	14.9	-1.33	16.2	15.7	0.49
Vince Carter	92	94	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.52	5	-6	11	13.8	18.3	-4.54	16.1	14.7	1.42
Richard Jefferson	73	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.46	2	-3	5	13.9	14.1	-0.20	16.1	15.7	0.40
Lamond Murray	58	60	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	0	-1	14.2	13.6	0.56	15.9	16.3	-0.37
Nenad Krstic	56	59	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.38	-5	4	-9	14.1	13.7	0.37	16.0	16.1	-0.06
Jason Kidd	92	94	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.50	-1	0	-1	13.8	17.0	-3.16	16.1	12.7	3.48

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	93	90	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.49	1	0	1	16.0	16.7	-0.74	13.9	15.2	-1.33
Gary Payton	46	44	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	-4	9	16.3	15.8	0.50	14.6	13.4	1.26
Dwyane Wade	88	87	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.48	0	1	-1	16.2	14.9	1.27	13.9	14.6	-0.75
Alonzo Mourning	43	41	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	-11	23	15.7	16.3	-0.58	14.7	13.3	1.40
James Posey	47	44	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.07	8	-7	15	15.6	16.4	-0.82	14.8	13.2	1.64
Udonis Haslem	57	58	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.55	-11	12	-23	16.5	15.4	1.01	13.1	15.3	-2.27
Shaquille O'Neal	51	52	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.30	-7	8	-15	16.3	15.8	0.53	13.7	14.3	-0.58
Jason Williams	60	59	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.11	-3	4	-7	15.7	16.6	-0.98	13.5	14.6	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.52,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 89, ORL 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.62,0.66,0.8,0.8,0.68,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.79,0.93,0.99,1	92.6%
SAS 87, WAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.35,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.67,0.8,0.85,0.97,0.96,1	92.0%
PHX 89, LAL 95	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.19,0.23,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.79,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.66,0.69,0.79,0.57,0.84,1	91.8%