NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	92		Excitement	8.4 [152]		MVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): +19.3%
Denver Nuggets	88		Comeback	2.3 [302]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -23.4%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ramon Sessions	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,0.18	-0.02	0.20	0.00	11	50%	0.23	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jordan Hill	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.10	0.00	9	50%	0.12	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Steve Blake	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12	0.02	0.07	-0.02	9	50%	0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Andrew Bynum	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	12	63%	0.09	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.12
Pau Gasol	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.04	-0.00	12	52%	0.03	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Devin Ebanks	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.21	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.12,-0.16,-0.24,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.10	-0.14	-0.03	25	43%	-0.03	5	-0.18	1	0%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.06,0.2,0.19	0.19	0.07	0.11	-0.01	16	59%	0.23	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.04	-0.03	8	44%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	5	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	11	41%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	8	33%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.11
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.11	0.01	13	42%	-0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23	-0.23	-0.04	-0.19	0.00	13	54%	-0.03	4	-0.20	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.8	29.3	19.4	27.4	2.8	38.2	144.4
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +34.1%

DEN -1.9%

LAL +21.2%

DEN -3.7%

LAL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	18.6	15.1	15.6	109.5	101.1	102.8
season	16.2	14.5		103.8	107.5
opponent	15.8	15.1		104.5	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	17.5	19.2	16.7	21.0	18.6
DEN	16.0	14.4	17.6	12.7	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ramon Sessions	69	71	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.48	6	-2	8	18.8	17.9	0.89	15.2	15.1	0.03
Pau Gasol	67	68	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.40	8	-4	12	18.4	19.5	-1.10	14.7	16.8	-2.10
Kobe Bryant	68	70	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.35	0	4	-4	18.1	20.6	-2.51	15.3	14.6	0.70
Steve Blake	50	51	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	6	-8	19.8	16.9	2.88	13.9	16.9	-3.01
Andrew Bynum	63	66	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.25	0	4	-4	17.3	22.4	-5.11	15.5	14.1	1.33
Jordan Hill	38	40	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	4	-4	21.1	16.5	4.58	15.4	14.9	0.46
Matt Barnes	28	31	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.05	5	-1	6	19.6	18.1	1.57	15.5	15.0	0.47
Devin Ebanks	37	38	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.02	3	1	2	16.8	20.0	-3.19	16.3	14.2	2.07

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Brewer	23	20	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.09	-4	0	-4	16.4	14.7	1.75	20.2	18.1	2.11
Kenneth Faried	57	56	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-3	2	15.5	14.4	1.09	18.5	18.8	-0.29
Arron Afflalo	60	58	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-5	6	15.1	15.3	-0.27	17.0	22.1	-5.04
JaVale McGee	46	45	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.28	5	-9	14	15.2	15.1	0.10	20.4	16.5	3.89
Timofey Mozgov	24	23	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.02	-7	3	-10	17.5	14.3	3.19	15.9	19.6	-3.69
Ty Lawson	62	61	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.46	2	-6	8	14.8	16.1	-1.36	18.3	19.3	-1.04
Al Harrington	43	41	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.33	-4	0	-4	14.5	15.8	-1.35	18.9	18.3	0.55
Andre Miller	55	52	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-3	2	14.3	16.7	-2.43	20.0	16.3	3.74
Danilo Gallinari	65	64	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.33	-11	7	-18	15.1	15.2	-0.04	18.2	19.8	-1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.46,0.28,0.22,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 85, DET 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.21,0.1,0.15,0	92.1%
MEM 90, LAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.4,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.15,0.05,0.27,0	92.1%
ATL 113, MEM 109	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.46,0.37,0.59,0.34,0.31,0.15,0.16,0.42,0	92.0%