NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	85		Excitement	9.5 [76]		MVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): +16.7%
Detroit Pistons	83		Comeback	2.8 [259]		LVP	Clifford Robinson (DET): -28.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.09	-0.01	7	71%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	8	60%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Jud Buechler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.02	-0.14	0.11	-0.01	14	40%	0.21	5	-0.22	2	100%	0.01
Monty Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	7	29%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	6	29%	-0.09	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04
Troy Hudson	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	12	38%	-0.11	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Mike Miller	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.14	-0.05	-0.09	0.01	15	53%	0.15	4	-0.29	4	100%	0.02
Darrell Armstrong	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23	-0.07	-0.16	0.00	12	44%	-0.07	3	-0.15	3	100%	0.04

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	7	71%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.07	-0.10	0.00	7	93%	0.14	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Zeljko Rebraca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	2	83%	0.02	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.03
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.10	-0.00	11	54%	-0.07	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.08
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.12	-0.00	5	20%	-0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.22	-0.22	-0.06	-0.17	-0.01	7	56%	0.12	4	-0.34	2	100%	0.07
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.25	-0.25	-0.12	-0.11	0.02	20	42%	-0.15	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.06
Clifford Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.12	-0.17	-0.01	12	42%	-0.06	5	-0.23	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.5	27.3	15.8	24.2	2.4	37.4	134.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +28.6%

ORL +4.1%

DET -14.3%

ORL +27.5%

ORL +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DET	NBA	ORL	DET	NBA
this game	15.5	15.1	15.6	91.4	87.4	102.3
season	14.6	15.7		104.6	101.9
opponent	15.8	15.8		99.8	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.5	15.3	14.5	18.2	15.5
DET	15.5	12.4	17.5	15.4	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	76	77	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.46	6	-4	10	14.8	18.7	-3.88	15.2	14.6	0.61
Pat Garrity	77	80	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.51	3	-1	4	15.4	16.3	-0.94	15.3	13.9	1.39
Darrell Armstrong	71	73	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.39	5	-3	8	15.3	16.2	-0.84	15.5	13.9	1.56
Tracy McGrady	55	57	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.36	0	2	-2	15.7	15.3	0.46	15.1	15.1	-0.04
Don Reid	35	37	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	-1	4	14.5	16.2	-1.69	16.6	14.1	2.53
Andrew DeClercq	54	53	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.11	1	1	0	16.0	14.9	1.15	15.0	15.3	-0.28
Monty Williams	48	48	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.05	1	1	0	16.2	14.8	1.39	15.2	15.0	0.12
Troy Hudson	37	39	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.26	-8	10	-18	17.1	14.5	2.61	13.0	16.6	-3.53
Jud Buechler	12	11	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.02	-1	3	-4	14.7	15.7	-0.90	12.9	15.4	-2.48

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	23	23	0.29	-0.79	1.07	-0.01	10	-12	22	13.5	15.6	-2.15	17.1	15.0	2.12
Zeljko Rebraca	20	21	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	-1	0	14.2	15.3	-1.08	16.4	15.3	1.15
Michael Curry	52	50	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	1	-4	15.9	14.1	1.76	14.7	16.6	-1.90
Corliss Williamson	42	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	1	-4	14.8	15.3	-0.49	16.4	14.9	1.52
Ben Wallace	68	67	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.27	1	-3	4	15.3	14.6	0.77	15.6	15.5	0.11
Jon Barry	49	49	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.43	6	-8	14	14.0	16.3	-2.24	16.3	14.7	1.62
Clifford Robinson	79	78	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.39	-3	1	-4	15.0	15.8	-0.85	15.1	17.9	-2.86
Jerry Stackhouse	70	66	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.47	-5	3	-8	15.6	13.6	1.99	15.3	16.0	-0.70
Chucky Atkins	72	70	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.43	-12	10	-22	15.6	13.5	2.15	15.0	17.1	-2.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.42,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.21,0.1,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 92, DEN 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.46,0.28,0.22,0.42,0	92.1%
OKC 97, NOH 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.2,0.27,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.31,0.15,0.15,0.09,0	92.0%
PHI 92, DET 83	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.28,0.42,0.3,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.17,0.02,0	91.5%