NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	113		Excitement	8.6 [163]		MVP	Emanual Davis (ATL): +25.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	109		Comeback	2.6 [355]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (ATL): -23.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Emanual Davis	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.26	0.09	0.16	0.00	4	100%	0.26	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
DerMarr Johnson	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15	0.13	0.04	0.01	11	75%	0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Toni Kukoc	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	9	71%	0.11	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.02
Jason Terry	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,0,-0.03,-0.06,0.05	-0.02	0.07	-0.01	17	51%	0.15	2	-0.10	5	60%	-0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	4	60%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Dion Glover	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	9	44%	-0.03	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Hanno Mottola	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	9	41%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.23	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.22,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28,-0.22,-0.24,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.3,-0.23	-0.18	-0.03	0.01	17	46%	-0.06	6	-0.18	14	86%	0.14

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.00	5	85%	0.12	2	-0.05	10	70%	-0.02
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	9	64%	0.05	0	0.00	7	86%	0.03
Stromile Swift	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.03	-0.01	12	68%	0.12	3	-0.11	4	75%	-0.08
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	9	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.03
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17	-0.17	0.03	-0.18	0.02	17	55%	-0.13	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.03
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.11	0.01	16	52%	0.00	5	-0.18	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.6	29.2	16.4	26.5	1.5	43.3	143.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +22.7%

ATL +18.3%

ATL +2.3%

ATL +14.2%

MEM -7.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MEM	NBA	ATL	MEM	NBA
this game	14.0	14.8	15.6	113.0	109.0	102.3
season	15.5	15.7		99.7	96.0
opponent	15.2	15.2		103.8	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	11.3	16.5	14.0	14.6	14.0
MEM	15.8	14.0	13.7	15.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	90	92	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.34	13	-9	22	13.6	17.7	-4.07	14.6	16.7	-2.16
DerMarr Johnson	64	63	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.43	7	-3	10	12.8	16.2	-3.37	14.3	15.5	-1.24
Jason Terry	83	83	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.25	13	-9	22	13.4	17.1	-3.64	14.3	16.8	-2.42
Emanual Davis	40	38	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.42	1	3	-2	14.9	13.4	1.52	15.2	14.5	0.77
Hanno Mottola	71	70	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.39	1	3	-2	14.6	12.7	1.85	14.4	15.5	-1.10
Dion Glover	60	61	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	1	2	13.4	14.9	-1.52	14.6	14.9	-0.31
Toni Kukoc	40	40	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.01	-1	5	-6	14.7	13.6	1.06	14.9	14.7	0.19
Jacque Vaughn	17	17	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.14	-9	13	-22	17.1	13.4	3.64	16.8	14.3	2.42
Nazr Mohammed	35	36	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.01	-8	12	-20	15.5	13.3	2.22	16.2	13.9	2.28

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Massenburg	27	27	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.12	6	-10	16	13.7	15.2	-1.50	11.7	14.9	-3.25
Brevin Knight	39	39	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.12	5	-9	14	14.8	14.7	0.10	14.0	14.1	-0.07
Rodney Buford	54	55	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.16	4	-8	12	15.0	14.5	0.44	15.1	12.8	2.25
Grant Long	77	78	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.33	6	-10	16	14.3	16.4	-2.18	14.4	12.8	1.62
Pau Gasol	68	68	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.12	-11	7	-18	16.0	12.1	3.88	13.6	15.0	-1.41
Shane Battier	96	95	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.38	-8	4	-12	14.8	13.5	1.31	13.8	19.2	-5.43
Stromile Swift	71	69	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	8	-20	15.1	14.0	1.12	15.4	11.1	4.27
Jason Williams	68	69	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.41	-10	6	-16	13.9	16.6	-2.65	13.3	15.7	-2.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.46,0.37,0.59,0.34,0.31,0.15,0.16,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 92, DEN 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.46,0.28,0.22,0.42,0	92.0%
MEM 90, LAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.4,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.15,0.05,0.27,0	91.7%
CHI 86, CLE 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.22,0.13,0.26,0	91.7%