NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	86		Excitement	8.5 [170]		MVP	Daniel Gibson (CLE): +12.8%
Cleveland Cavaliers	85		Comeback	1.8 [134]		LVP	Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE): -23.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1	0.00	0.04	-0.05	16	44%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.00	9	50%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07	-0.04	0.11	-0.00	15	44%	0.13	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Joakim Noah	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	12	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kirk Hinrich	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	8	53%	0.06	4	-0.14	1	0%	-0.02
Jannero Pargo	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.1	0.03	-0.13	0.01	13	52%	-0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.04	0.00	4	100%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.07	-0.01	13	54%	0.14	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	9	61%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.25,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.05	-0.01	17	58%	0.09	3	-0.08	9	67%	-0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.06	0.01	7	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.03,-0.08,-0.23	-0.23	-0.06	-0.20	-0.02	13	38%	-0.19	1	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.16	-0.08	-0.00	9	9%	-0.21	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.5	33.2	19.8	25.2	3.7	39.6	151.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +30.3%

CHI +0.8%

CHI +15.9%

CHI +2.8%

CHI +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	CLE	NBA	CHI	CLE	NBA
this game	14.7	16.6	15.3	93.5	92.4	106.0
season	14.7	16.1		101.9	109.5
opponent	15.0	15.7		103.3	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.6	14.2	13.4	16.8	14.7
CLE	14.8	20.1	16.0	16.0	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Rose	60	59	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.51	0	1	-1	15.8	12.5	3.32	17.8	14.5	3.31
Joakim Noah	52	51	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.31	6	-5	11	13.8	15.9	-2.09	18.2	14.7	3.47
Luol Deng	77	77	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.45	-1	2	-3	14.5	15.9	-1.48	15.6	21.7	-6.12
John Salmons	73	73	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.42	-2	3	-5	15.1	13.3	1.74	15.0	22.6	-7.59
Kirk Hinrich	48	48	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.22	3	-2	5	13.1	16.5	-3.41	16.7	16.5	0.12
Taj Gibson	64	65	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.20	0	1	-1	14.9	14.1	0.79	16.0	18.0	-2.02
Jannero Pargo	19	19	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	-2	5	14.0	14.9	-0.88	22.8	15.0	7.86
Tyrus Thomas	25	24	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	-1	3	14.5	14.8	-0.30	17.5	16.3	1.21
Brad Miller	42	44	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.14	-6	7	-13	15.9	13.7	2.27	15.2	17.9	-2.69

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anderson Varejao	68	69	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.20	11	-12	23	15.4	20.1	-4.70	14.8	14.3	0.58
JJ Hickson	6	6	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.00	-3	2	-5	22.0	16.2	5.77	14.3	14.7	-0.39
Delonte West	48	49	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.23	1	-2	3	17.0	16.2	0.77	15.1	14.2	0.91
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	38	39	-0.21	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	3	-7	18.5	15.3	3.18	14.0	15.2	-1.25
Mo Williams	64	65	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.39	1	-2	3	15.6	18.9	-3.28	14.7	14.7	0.04
Anthony Parker	68	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.26	-4	3	-7	17.0	15.4	1.67	15.2	13.5	1.72
Shaquille O'Neal	60	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.37	-2	1	-3	16.8	16.2	0.65	15.1	13.9	1.18
Daniel Gibson	31	31	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	3	-7	18.5	15.6	2.93	13.8	15.1	-1.34
LeBron James	77	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.44	-1	0	-1	15.6	21.7	-6.12	14.3	16.6	-2.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.22,0.13,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 94, GSW 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.43,0.52,0.32,0.47,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.29,0.15,0.17,0	93.2%
PHI 92, MIL 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.49,0.43,0.34,0.28,0.36,0.2,0.17,0.11,0.04,0.02,0.16,0	93.1%
GSW 100, BOS 88	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.07,0.04,0,0	92.9%