NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	86		Excitement	7.8 [234]		MVP	Ray Allen (BOS): +22.5%
Atlanta Hawks	87		Comeback	2.7 [425]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -22.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.08	0.14	0.00	10	60%	0.22	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Keyon Dooling	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.04	-0.00	12	62%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	54%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Mickael Pietrus	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	25%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Greg Stiemsma	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.13	-0.04	-0.08	0.01	17	47%	-0.01	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.22	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.15,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.14	-0.09	-0.00	17	38%	-0.05	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.18,0.18	0.18	-0.02	0.20	0.00	15	56%	0.30	4	-0.13	4	75%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	9	75%	0.17	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	4	87%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ivan Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	17	42%	0.01	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1	-0.10	0.02	-0.08	0.04	11	62%	0.00	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Josh Smith	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.22	-0.22	-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	16	38%	0.08	4	-0.30	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.0	33.0	19.4	28.0	3.0	36.0	146.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +32.3%

BOS -0.2%

ATL +6.0%

BOS -26.3%

ATL +38.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ATL	NBA	BOS	ATL	NBA
this game	16.1	16.3	15.6	97.7	96.7	102.8
season	15.5	15.7		99.4	102.5
opponent	15.9	16.2		99.5	97.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.0	16.9	16.6	15.9	16.1
ATL	15.7	15.2	15.4	19.3	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Hollins	32	35	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.04	6	-7	13	17.3	15.4	1.89	16.0	16.4	-0.41
Mickael Pietrus	27	27	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.23	11	-12	23	16.0	16.1	-0.06	15.9	16.4	-0.56
Keyon Dooling	6	9	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.05	4	-5	9	16.2	16.1	0.09	13.9	16.5	-2.65
Kevin Garnett	71	71	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.45	17	-18	35	16.1	16.2	-0.12	16.5	15.3	1.22
Greg Stiemsma	8	8	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.02	-2	1	-3	13.6	16.3	-2.70	16.4	16.3	0.11
Avery Bradley	35	33	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.15	0	-1	1	15.5	16.5	-0.99	16.2	16.3	-0.15
Ray Allen	53	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.33	-1	0	-1	16.5	15.5	0.99	16.3	16.2	0.15
Rajon Rondo	82	81	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.42	-5	4	-9	16.1	16.2	-0.09	16.5	13.9	2.65
Brandon Bass	60	61	-0.87	0.37	-1.23	-0.22	-22	21	-43	15.9	16.4	-0.46	16.1	16.6	-0.51
Paul Pierce	66	68	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.51	-13	12	-25	16.0	16.4	-0.44	16.4	15.8	0.61

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	66	66	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.48	14	-13	27	16.5	15.6	0.95	16.1	16.0	0.11
Al Horford	75	76	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.46	10	-9	19	16.8	13.8	2.97	16.2	15.0	1.25
Jeff Teague	79	79	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.44	5	-4	9	16.4	15.1	1.35	15.9	17.4	-1.52
Joe Johnson	83	83	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.47	2	-1	3	16.8	9.7	7.12	16.2	13.4	2.84
Josh Smith	87	85	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.49	0	1	-1	16.4	12.0	4.43	16.1	15.3	0.77
Jason Collins	1	0	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.06	-3	4	-7	0.0	16.5	-16.46	0.0	16.1	-16.08
Ivan Johnson	1	0	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.06	-3	4	-7	0.0	16.5	-16.46	0.0	16.1	-16.08
Tracy McGrady	14	13	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.07	1	0	1	15.5	16.4	-0.92	15.9	16.1	-0.18
Kirk Hinrich	13	12	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.03	-5	6	-11	14.7	16.5	-1.85	17.7	15.8	1.93
Erick Dampier	16	14	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.05	-5	6	-11	15.2	16.5	-1.33	15.4	16.2	-0.77
Willie Green	15	12	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	-0.02	-11	12	-23	13.3	16.9	-3.53	13.8	16.4	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.78,0.87,0.87,0.75,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.71,0.77,0.86,0.78,0.66,0.93,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 77, IND 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.69,0.81,0.87,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.96,1	91.4%
DEN 104, WAS 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.67,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.65,0.73,0.68,0.64,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.47,0.41,0.71,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.68,0.72,1	91.2%
TOR 98, PHI 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.65,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.94,0.99,1	90.8%