NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	104		Excitement	8.1 [224]		MVP	Jaren Jackson (WAS): +25.1%
Washington Bullets	108		Comeback	2.7 [575]		LVP	Calbert Cheaney (WAS): -14.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaPhonso Ellis	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	-0.00	0.01	16	62%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mark Jackson	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.08	-0.02	0.12	0.01	9	68%	0.22	5	-0.14	4	100%	0.07
Bryant Stith	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.09,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	16	56%	0.10	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	6	57%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Antonio McDyess	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	13	57%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.06
Melvin Booker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Brooks Thompson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	5	20%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dale Ellis	-0.12	0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	0.00	-0.11	0.01	17	56%	0.03	3	-0.15	5	100%	0.04

Washington Bullets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.25	0.25	0.06	0.18	-0.01	7	67%	0.25	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.05	0.00	18	66%	0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13	0.13	-0.03	0.11	-0.05	15	49%	0.14	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Harvey Grant	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gheorghe Muresan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0	-0.00	0.06	-0.06	0.00	11	71%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.03	0.04	20	52%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	6	58%	0.06	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	5	17%	-0.09	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.4	20.4	14.5	24.7	1.8	27.3	112.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +19.0%

DEN -0.8%

WAS +5.8%

WAS +26.5%

DEN -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	WAS	NBA	DEN	WAS	NBA
this game	15.9	14.9	15.6	110.6	116.1	104.4
season	15.2	14.8		102.3	104.3
opponent	15.8	15.3		103.3	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	16.9	17.0	14.9	15.9
WAS	13.2	15.8	14.3	16.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	46	45	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.00	3	-7	10	14.7	17.1	-2.49	13.9	15.8	-1.86
Brooks Thompson	17	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.13	-5	1	-6	15.6	16.0	-0.34	15.9	14.6	1.26
Antonio McDyess	44	44	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-2	0	15.6	16.2	-0.67	14.9	14.9	-0.01
Mark Jackson	88	86	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.40	1	-5	6	15.8	18.2	-2.39	14.8	15.1	-0.29
Bryant Stith	82	81	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.43	0	-4	4	16.1	15.0	1.06	14.6	16.6	-1.97
Tom Hammonds	53	53	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.35	-3	-1	-2	16.6	15.1	1.51	15.8	13.6	2.23
LaPhonso Ellis	57	55	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.36	-6	2	-8	17.0	14.3	2.69	15.1	14.6	0.54
Dale Ellis	82	82	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.44	-4	0	-4	15.7	17.7	-2.00	14.6	16.6	-2.00

Washington Bullets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rod Strickland	69	70	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.53	6	-2	8	14.6	15.7	-1.07	15.4	17.5	-2.11
Chris Webber	80	81	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.50	3	1	2	14.8	15.2	-0.42	15.8	16.6	-0.80
Juwan Howard	82	83	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.42	5	-1	6	14.7	16.2	-1.49	15.6	18.5	-2.97
Gheorghe Muresan	59	59	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.28	8	-4	12	14.9	14.9	-0.02	16.9	14.3	2.52
Jaren Jackson	45	45	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	-2	8	15.2	14.6	0.64	16.3	15.6	0.78
Chris Whitney	42	41	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	-1	6	15.8	14.1	1.75	16.1	15.8	0.26
Tracy Murray	33	33	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.11	1	3	-2	15.5	14.5	0.90	16.0	15.9	0.11
Harvey Grant	23	25	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.03	-5	9	-14	14.9	14.9	-0.00	15.7	16.0	-0.33
Calbert Cheaney	32	33	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.03	-9	13	-22	13.7	15.5	-1.71	15.9	15.9	-0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.67,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.65,0.73,0.68,0.64,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.47,0.41,0.71,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.68,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 104, MIL 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.27,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.87,0.95,0.79,0.69,0.73,1	91.5%
BOS 86, ATL 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.78,0.87,0.87,0.75,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.71,0.77,0.86,0.78,0.66,0.93,1	91.2%
NYK 89, LAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.42,0.36,0.59,0.78,0.81,0.93,0.69,0.92,1	90.9%