NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	104		Excitement	8.5 [208]		MVP	Charlie Bell (MIL): +20.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	108		Comeback	3.1 [340]		LVP	Ruben Patterson (MIL): -14.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,0.12,0.12	-0.01	0.12	-0.01	14	48%	0.17	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Trenton Hassell	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.03	0.01	6	76%	0.12	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.04
Mark Blount	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.06	0.02	12	67%	0.15	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	12	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.03
Randy Foye	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	6	72%	0.16	4	-0.14	6	83%	0.03
Troy Hudson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.08	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Kevin Garnett	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.17,0.17,-0.05	0.04	-0.10	-0.02	17	60%	0.21	4	-0.26	9	89%	0.03
Craig Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.09

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,0.04,0.21	0.21	0.04	0.18	0.01	15	50%	0.23	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.04	0.02	18	65%	0.18	2	-0.06	7	71%	-0.03
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12	0.12	-0.02	0.13	-0.01	12	57%	0.23	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.04
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	-0.04	-0.00	19	64%	0.16	2	-0.08	6	100%	0.04
David Noel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.00	7	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	0.00	4	75%	0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	8	25%	-0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	30.4	16.4	24.4	2.5	44.3	144.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +13.1%

MIN -8.9%

MIL +20.6%

MIL +25.6%

MIN -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIL	NBA	MIN	MIL	NBA
this game	14.7	15.8	15.4	108.3	116.1	104.5
season	15.4	15.2		101.9	105.3
opponent	15.5	15.6		109.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.2	15.5	16.4	12.7	14.7
MIL	16.5	15.2	15.5	16.1	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Craig Smith	32	28	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-1	-2	15.9	14.0	1.83	16.9	15.4	1.56
Kevin Garnett	80	79	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-7	10	14.2	17.1	-2.89	16.1	14.6	1.41
Marko Jaric	21	21	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	2	-8	14.2	14.8	-0.60	17.5	15.3	2.18
Mike James	69	67	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-1	-2	14.8	14.3	0.45	15.3	17.3	-1.99
Ricky Davis	74	72	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.35	2	-6	8	14.8	14.0	0.79	16.3	14.4	1.88
Randy Foye	43	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	1	-6	14.6	14.7	-0.14	16.3	15.5	0.77
Trenton Hassell	81	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.39	-1	-3	2	14.5	15.3	-0.72	15.1	20.5	-5.46
Mark Blount	80	78	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.43	-7	3	-10	14.6	14.7	-0.04	15.4	18.0	-2.58

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Bogut	68	68	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.50	3	1	2	15.9	15.7	0.16	14.2	15.7	-1.54
Michael Redd	71	73	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.36	5	-1	6	15.2	17.8	-2.53	14.6	14.8	-0.17
Mo Williams	79	82	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.40	3	1	2	15.8	16.3	-0.53	14.4	16.2	-1.82
Brian Skinner	72	74	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.34	0	4	-4	15.4	17.3	-1.87	14.6	14.8	-0.21
Charlie Bell	66	67	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.21	3	1	2	16.0	15.4	0.66	14.4	15.3	-0.94
David Noel	7	8	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.08	2	2	0	19.7	15.5	4.19	15.5	14.6	0.92
Ruben Patterson	60	63	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	4	-4	15.8	15.9	-0.11	15.6	12.8	2.75
Steve Blake	16	17	0.07	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	0	4	15.5	15.9	-0.41	14.4	14.7	-0.37
Dan Gadzuric	26	28	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.02	0	4	-4	17.5	15.2	2.36	15.2	14.4	0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.27,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.87,0.95,0.79,0.69,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 85, MEM 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.49,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.57,0.49,0.48,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.67,0.72,0.79,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.79,0.76,0.99,1	91.9%
MIL 73, MIA 78	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.36,0.25,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.72,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.68,0.79,0.68,0.74,1	91.9%
BOS 77, MIL 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.93,0.79,0.77,0.95,1	91.7%