NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	73		Excitement	7.7 [280]		MVP	Chris Quinn (MIA): +41.8%
Miami Heat	78		Comeback	3.1 [108]		LVP	Daequan Cook (MIA): -31.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Ruffin	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.05	-0.01	-0.06	-0.02	20	53%	0.17	5	-0.23	5	100%	0.06
Yi Jianlian	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	11	21%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mo Williams	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-0.00	16	47%	-0.00	7	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.26,-0.26	-0.10	-0.16	-0.00	6	28%	-0.06	2	-0.19	6	50%	-0.06
Andrew Bogut	-0.31	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.31,-0.31	-0.07	-0.22	0.01	14	47%	-0.07	4	-0.24	6	67%	-0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.17,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.42	0.42	0.16	0.29	0.03	13	77%	0.47	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.07
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.07	-0.00	3	79%	0.17	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.04
Stephane Lasme	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.05	-0.00	3	60%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Earl Barron	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	10	46%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Kasib Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Blake Ahearn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.08	-0.13	-0.02	14	33%	-0.16	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.32,-0.32,-0.31	-0.31	-0.09	-0.20	0.02	12	38%	-0.12	3	-0.19	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.8	29.7	15.7	23.7	2.5	36.2	132.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +10.1%

MIA +23.5%

MIL -32.6%

MIA +50.8%

MIL -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.2	17.4	15.4	85.9	90.7	105.7
season	15.8	16.0		103.4	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.2		108.3	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.0	17.0	19.9	13.3	16.2
MIA	18.4	15.7	16.1	19.4	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Yi Jianlian	41	44	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.28	11	-16	27	16.0	16.5	-0.45	18.8	16.0	2.73
Dan Gadzuric	8	7	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.03	0	-5	5	21.4	15.7	5.67	15.0	17.7	-2.66
Ramon Sessions	10	10	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-3	1	20.0	15.7	4.27	18.4	17.3	1.08
Michael Ruffin	10	9	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-3	1	17.1	16.1	0.98	20.0	17.1	2.86
Charlie Villanueva	47	47	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-1	-3	15.9	16.6	-0.67	16.8	18.3	-1.49
Royal Ivey	16	15	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.06	-7	2	-9	13.8	16.8	-2.98	15.1	17.9	-2.80
Michael Redd	73	73	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.27	-2	-3	1	15.8	18.8	-3.03	17.0	20.0	-3.01
Mo Williams	79	82	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.39	-3	-2	-1	16.4	13.7	2.76	17.7	12.7	4.92
Andrew Bogut	73	75	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.37	-6	1	-7	15.6	19.8	-4.19	17.1	19.9	-2.83
Desmond Mason	68	68	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.32	-10	5	-15	16.7	14.2	2.50	17.9	15.6	2.39

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	70	69	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.36	6	-1	7	16.9	19.7	-2.84	15.7	18.6	-2.94
Daequan Cook	60	61	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.26	9	-4	13	17.8	16.7	1.07	16.1	16.5	-0.43
Earl Barron	54	54	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.20	9	-4	13	17.1	18.1	-0.99	16.5	15.8	0.62
Ricky Davis	72	71	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	3	-1	17.0	19.8	-2.80	15.4	20.4	-4.93
Joel Anthony	52	52	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.22	1	4	-3	17.1	17.9	-0.83	15.6	17.3	-1.75
Stephane Lasme	35	33	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.27	-2	7	-9	17.8	17.2	0.60	15.7	16.6	-0.88
Mark Blount	31	31	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	3	-1	18.2	17.0	1.23	17.5	15.5	2.07
Kasib Powell	40	38	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.10	-1	6	-7	17.8	17.2	0.62	17.9	14.9	3.10
Blake Ahearn	16	16	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	6	-7	19.7	16.9	2.84	18.6	15.7	2.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.36,0.25,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.72,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.68,0.79,0.68,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 96, UTA 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.78,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.69,0.84,0.68,0.58,1	92.7%
SAS 90, NYK 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.64,0.72,0.77,0.9,1	92.1%
NJN 107, DET 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.35,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.77,0.69,0.78,0.78,0.69,0.64,0.93,0.91,1	92.1%