NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	104		Excitement	7.3 [348]		MVP	Paul Millsap (UTA): +25.8%
Utah Jazz	112		Comeback	2.6 [679]		LVP	Kyrylo Fesenko (UTA): -14.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.05	0.04	19	60%	0.16	2	-0.04	12	92%	0.06
Chris Andersen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	3	75%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Ty Lawson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	6	62%	0.14	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Joey Graham	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	-0.04	0.03	14	66%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Johan Petro	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	30%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Allen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	42%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	29%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Carmelo Anthony	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.02,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.04	-0.03	22	37%	-0.07	2	-0.05	10	80%	0.01

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.10	0.18	0.02	11	66%	0.33	3	-0.08	10	70%	-0.02
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.10	-0.02	12	59%	0.18	3	-0.04	15	87%	0.07
Carlos Boozer	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.06	-0.01	14	69%	0.23	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.02
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	59%	0.06	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
CJ Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	62%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
Sundiata Gaines	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othyus Jeffers	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	10	47%	0.05	2	-0.06	10	60%	0.02
Kyrylo Fesenko	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	1	0%	-0.04	4	-0.10	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	36.0	2.8	40.3	18.8	34.0	2.8	37.0	171.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +53.3%

UTA +9.5%

DEN -3.7%

DEN -19.9%

UTA +10.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	13.7	15.0	15.3	104.0	110.9	106.0
season	14.4	15.3		110.3	109.5
opponent	15.0	15.5		104.5	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.4	13.7	15.4	12.3	13.7
UTA	13.2	14.5	15.3	17.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	36	39	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.02	7	-15	22	13.6	13.7	-0.14	15.4	14.6	0.79
Joey Graham	54	55	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.08	0	-8	8	12.6	15.0	-2.37	14.5	15.5	-0.97
Johan Petro	24	27	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.05	-3	-5	2	14.5	13.4	1.11	15.2	14.9	0.32
Malik Allen	13	12	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-8	8	14.4	13.6	0.79	13.1	15.2	-2.12
Ty Lawson	45	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.15	-5	-3	-2	13.2	14.1	-0.87	15.1	14.8	0.25
J.R. Smith	44	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.03	-11	3	-14	13.8	13.6	0.21	13.9	15.7	-1.87
Chris Andersen	30	29	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	-5	2	14.1	13.5	0.62	16.7	14.2	2.44
Carmelo Anthony	96	96	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.26	-5	-3	-2	13.8	11.0	2.81	15.0	13.2	1.84
Kenyon Martin	78	78	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.34	-10	2	-12	14.0	12.7	1.31	15.0	14.7	0.27
Chauncey Billups	80	80	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.38	-10	2	-12	13.7	13.5	0.19	14.9	15.1	-0.18

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Millsap	77	74	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.25	24	-16	40	14.2	17.4	-3.23	14.0	12.8	1.21
Wesley Matthews	82	82	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.33	11	-3	14	15.2	13.9	1.30	13.8	13.3	0.45
Deron Williams	77	76	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.33	7	1	6	14.9	15.1	-0.17	13.5	14.4	-0.89
Carlos Boozer	93	93	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.24	8	0	8	15.2	12.0	3.20	14.1	8.9	5.21
CJ Miles	57	57	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.07	8	0	8	14.5	15.5	-1.05	15.8	11.0	4.78
Ronnie Price	38	38	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.10	2	6	-4	16.0	14.3	1.64	12.6	14.4	-1.77
Othyus Jeffers	1	1	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	8	-8	0.0	15.1	-15.10	8.0	13.8	-5.76
Sundiata Gaines	2	1	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.06	1	7	-6	10.0	15.1	-5.05	8.0	13.8	-5.76
Kosta Koufos	10	9	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.01	-3	11	-14	17.6	14.7	2.94	10.4	14.0	-3.58
Kyle Korver	46	45	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	13	-18	14.8	15.0	-0.19	12.5	14.7	-2.20
Kyrylo Fesenko	22	24	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	0.05	-13	21	-34	15.4	14.8	0.53	12.5	14.1	-1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.67,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.74,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.3,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.6,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.76,0.86,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 89, ORL 96	0.5,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.71,0.83,0.85,0.97,0.96,1,1	91.1%
DET 91, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.64,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.33,0.43,0.53,0.41,0.65,0.78,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.99,1	90.5%
SAC 100, SAS 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.96,0.99,1,1	90.2%