NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	100		Excitement	7.1 [427]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +34.0%
San Antonio Spurs	109		Comeback	2.0 [1005]		LVP	Kevin Martin (SAC): -18.1%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Justin Williams	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.02	9	71%	0.17	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.04
Francisco Garcia	0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.00	0.01	16	61%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	10	55%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ronnie Price	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	14	65%	0.16	5	-0.14	6	100%	0.05
Brad Miller	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	9	48%	0.04	2	-0.09	3	67%	-0.02
Kevin Martin	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	14	37%	-0.10	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.24,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.17	0.18	0.01	10	86%	0.34	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.07	0.03	14	70%	0.24	3	-0.10	9	44%	-0.13
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.05	0.00	7	69%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	35%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.04	0.00	4	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	4	75%	0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	13	47%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	9	61%	0.12	3	-0.13	5	100%	0.03
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	3	62%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	2.4	26.4	15.7	25.0	1.6	34.5	127.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +50.8%

SAC -3.9%

SAS +13.4%

SAC -9.8%

SAC -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SAS	NBA	SAC	SAS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.2	15.4	107.5	116.0	104.5
season	14.7	16.2		104.7	107.5
opponent	15.4	15.1		98.9	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.2	17.1	16.4	15.0	15.6
SAS	14.6	16.4	16.3	13.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	18	17	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.01	3	-12	15	15.2	15.7	-0.53	16.4	15.0	1.39
Justin Williams	55	57	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.06	-4	-5	1	15.2	16.1	-0.87	14.9	15.7	-0.85
Ronnie Price	34	35	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.04	-7	-2	-5	16.8	14.9	1.85	16.5	14.5	1.98
Mike Bibby	76	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-9	9	15.0	18.2	-3.16	15.3	14.7	0.61
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	64	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.40	2	-11	13	16.6	13.3	3.31	16.0	13.6	2.41
Francisco Garcia	80	82	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.15	-12	3	-15	15.6	15.5	0.15	14.9	17.2	-2.34
Kevin Martin	83	84	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.20	-13	4	-17	15.3	18.3	-3.03	14.4	22.4	-8.04
John Salmons	55	57	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.25	-14	5	-19	15.4	15.8	-0.42	15.1	15.4	-0.32

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	66	66	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.28	8	1	7	15.8	13.9	1.83	15.9	14.9	1.04
Bruce Bowen	62	63	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.25	7	2	5	16.1	13.5	2.64	16.6	13.5	3.04
Brent Barry	38	38	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.16	10	-1	11	15.1	15.3	-0.14	15.4	15.7	-0.24
Michael Finley	62	63	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.21	6	3	3	15.5	14.6	0.89	16.4	13.8	2.60
Jacque Vaughn	30	29	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.02	8	1	7	13.5	16.0	-2.52	14.4	16.1	-1.71
Tony Parker	64	64	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.22	1	8	-7	16.0	13.5	2.52	16.1	14.4	1.71
Manu Ginobili	60	59	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	3	3	14.2	17.1	-2.89	14.9	16.8	-1.90
Robert Horry	24	23	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	4	1	12.9	16.0	-3.08	14.2	16.1	-1.88
Matt Bonner	4	3	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.02	1	8	-7	15.2	15.2	0.04	13.7	15.7	-1.99
Beno Udrih	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	11	-13	16.2	15.2	1.08	7.3	15.9	-8.53
Fabricio Oberto	28	27	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.05	1	8	-7	13.9	15.8	-1.83	14.9	15.9	-1.04
Francisco Elson	28	27	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	15	-21	16.7	14.6	2.14	15.4	15.7	-0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.96,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 89, ORL 96	0.5,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.71,0.83,0.85,0.97,0.96,1,1	92.9%
ORL 90, WAS 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.74,0.84,0.93,0.89,0.85,0.94,1,1	92.8%
DET 85, LAL 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.5,0.57,0.34,0.52,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.87,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	92.5%