NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	87		Excitement	6.3 [535]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): +17.7%
Portland Trail Blazers	96		Comeback	1.6 [481]		LVP	Steve Nash (PHX): -16.3%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.17,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.05	-0.01	16	62%	0.22	1	-0.05	10	80%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.03	-0.02	16	44%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jarron Collins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	8	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.05	0.00	5	80%	0.06	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Lou Amundson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Grant Hill	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	10	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Goran Dragic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Dudley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.11	-0.00	11	60%	0.03	6	-0.20	3	67%	-0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.10	0.03	19	62%	0.23	2	-0.05	12	75%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.02	6	67%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	10	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	9	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	10	45%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	13	42%	-0.04	3	-0.07	10	70%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.0	34.1	19.6	31.1	3.4	40.6	155.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +14.7%

POR +5.7%

POR +2.3%

POR +25.0%

POR +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	POR	NBA	PHX	POR	NBA
this game	15.9	17.6	15.3	101.2	111.6	106.0
season	14.4	16.7		113.5	108.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		106.3	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	14.2	13.1	20.0	17.3	15.9
POR	15.8	18.2	17.0	19.7	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Dudley	30	32	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.00	6	-15	21	16.8	15.5	1.34	18.5	17.0	1.45
Lou Amundson	18	18	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-10	11	13.9	16.5	-2.51	16.2	17.9	-1.69
Goran Dragic	17	18	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-9	9	16.5	15.8	0.67	19.0	17.2	1.82
Jarron Collins	35	34	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.04	1	-10	11	14.6	16.8	-2.24	16.9	18.0	-1.02
Leandro Barbosa	26	25	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-6	3	15.7	16.0	-0.34	21.1	16.1	4.97
Jason Richardson	60	61	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.21	-6	-3	-3	16.0	15.7	0.34	16.1	21.1	-4.97
Channing Frye	51	52	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.19	-10	1	-11	16.8	14.6	2.24	18.0	16.9	1.02
Steve Nash	69	68	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.23	-9	0	-9	15.8	16.5	-0.67	17.2	19.0	-1.82
Amar'e Stoudemire	68	68	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.26	-10	1	-11	16.5	13.9	2.51	17.9	16.2	1.69
Grant Hill	56	54	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.23	-15	6	-21	15.5	16.8	-1.34	17.0	18.5	-1.45

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	76	76	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.22	13	-4	17	17.9	14.6	3.35	15.4	19.8	-4.38
Nicolas Batum	60	62	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.17	14	-5	19	18.0	16.6	1.41	15.6	16.9	-1.31
Andre Miller	78	79	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-4	17	17.9	14.0	3.92	15.7	18.4	-2.72
Brandon Roy	45	46	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.25	1	8	-7	18.0	17.0	1.02	16.0	15.8	0.20
Marcus Camby	55	56	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.22	2	7	-5	16.3	19.7	-3.36	15.8	16.2	-0.36
Juwan Howard	30	29	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.02	7	2	5	20.0	16.3	3.70	16.3	15.7	0.57
Martell Webster	24	22	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.02	2	7	-5	15.7	18.3	-2.51	17.3	15.5	1.87
Rudy Fernandez	17	16	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	9	-9	16.6	17.8	-1.14	15.6	16.0	-0.45
Jerryd Bayless	45	44	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.17	-7	16	-23	16.4	18.8	-2.43	17.0	14.8	2.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.51,0.43,0.52,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.72,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.73,0.85,0.93,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 87, CHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.43,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.75,0.9,0.98,0.92,1	93.7%
BOS 97, CLE 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.6,0.72,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.98,1	92.9%
DET 104, MIA 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.74,0.78,0.69,0.67,0.45,0.5,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.62,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.91,1	92.8%