NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	104		Excitement	7.5 [379]		MVP	Reggie Bullock (DET): +25.7%
Miami Heat	111		Comeback	1.7 [788]		LVP	Avery Bradley (DET): -13.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Bullock	0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.26	0.16	0.09	-0.01	10	85%	0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kennard	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.08	0.00	7	87%	0.20	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Boban Marjanovic	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.03	0.02	8	71%	0.12	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Dwight Buycks	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.05	-0.01	12	58%	0.15	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.04	-0.02	13	56%	0.13	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.02
Anthony Tolliver	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	5	50%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eric Moreland	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	10	30%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	19	37%	-0.10	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.25	0.25	0.17	0.09	0.01	15	83%	0.32	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.13	0.11	-0.00	8	94%	0.29	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.08,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.08	0.02	12	79%	0.28	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.03
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.01	8	62%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	-0.00	19	57%	0.18	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.05	0.00	12	46%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Derrick Walton Jr.	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Mickey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.8	23.2	14.8	24.1	2.4	30.3	120.8
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +57.2%

DET -9.8%

MIA +9.6%

DET -12.7%

MIA +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	14.8	16.0	14.7	111.8	118.1	107.5
season	14.9	15.1		106.4	105.4
opponent	14.6	14.7		105.8	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	12.2	14.3	16.4	16.9	14.8
MIA	15.5	14.5	16.4	18.1	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Kennard	44	45	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.10	4	-11	15	15.0	14.6	0.45	16.4	15.7	0.62
Dwight Buycks	34	35	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.03	1	-8	9	15.1	14.6	0.56	15.9	16.1	-0.14
Boban Marjanovic	43	44	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-6	5	15.4	14.2	1.13	15.8	16.2	-0.36
Eric Moreland	34	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	-4	1	14.4	15.0	-0.55	16.6	15.7	0.96
Reggie Bullock	69	70	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.24	3	-10	13	13.9	17.4	-3.52	15.8	16.6	-0.74
Tobias Harris	71	71	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.18	0	-7	7	14.0	17.1	-3.11	15.7	17.0	-1.28
Ish Smith	59	59	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.26	-8	1	-9	14.6	15.1	-0.56	16.1	15.9	0.14
Anthony Tolliver	38	39	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.29	-10	3	-13	15.8	14.1	1.69	16.3	15.9	0.43
Avery Bradley	73	73	-0.87	0.37	-1.24	-0.25	-21	14	-35	15.5	12.1	3.33	16.0	16.1	-0.08

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Ellington	68	67	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.15	17	-10	27	15.6	17.2	-1.55	14.7	14.9	-0.17
Goran Dragic	71	69	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.19	12	-5	17	15.8	16.7	-0.88	15.4	12.8	2.60
James Johnson	48	50	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.04	14	-7	21	15.3	16.8	-1.56	14.0	15.7	-1.74
Tyler Johnson	63	62	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.21	4	3	1	16.6	14.9	1.64	14.6	15.0	-0.35
Kelly Olynyk	70	69	0.29	0.20	0.09	0.21	3	4	-1	16.2	15.6	0.60	14.5	15.6	-1.16
Jordan Mickey	10	9	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.12	3	4	-1	18.1	15.8	2.31	20.6	14.1	6.41
Josh Richardson	74	73	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.39	-9	16	-25	16.4	14.5	1.88	14.6	15.3	-0.68
Hassan Whiteside	32	32	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.18	-2	9	-11	15.9	16.1	-0.19	16.2	14.0	2.27
Derrick Walton Jr.	12	13	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.01	-2	9	-11	15.0	16.2	-1.18	12.5	15.1	-2.59
Bam Adebayo	22	21	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.01	-5	12	-17	16.1	16.0	0.14	13.1	15.2	-2.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.74,0.78,0.69,0.67,0.45,0.5,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.62,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 87, POR 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.51,0.43,0.52,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.72,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.73,0.85,0.93,0.98,1,1	92.8%
BOS 117, ATL 120	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.45,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.9,0.84,1	92.3%
CLE 93, NYK 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.77,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.83,1	91.9%