NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	117		Excitement	7.9 [279]		MVP	Al Harrington (ATL): +24.3%
Atlanta Hawks	120		Comeback	2.1 [783]		LVP	Mark Blount (BOS): -26.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Dickau	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.05	-0.00	8	87%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.12,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.21,0.17,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.09	0.04	22	62%	0.30	3	-0.12	9	100%	0.06
Orien Greene	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07	0.04	0.04	0.01	4	75%	0.11	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.05	0.13	-0.08	0.00	9	86%	0.17	2	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Kendrick Perkins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Reed	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0	0.11	-0.09	0.02	15	64%	0.10	2	-0.10	9	100%	0.06
Brian Scalabrine	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.06	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Gomes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0	0%	-0.04	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Mark Blount	-0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.11	-0.14	0.01	7	43%	-0.07	5	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.24	0.24	0.17	0.09	0.02	18	68%	0.31	2	-0.07	14	86%	0.06
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.08	0.00	7	71%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	12	61%	0.18	3	-0.09	7	100%	0.06
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.01	0.05	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	7	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	60%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
John Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	11	73%	0.26	6	-0.26	4	100%	0.04
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	0.01	10	52%	0.09	5	-0.27	5	80%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.6	33.6	16.0	26.3	2.5	39.8	143.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +15.6%

ATL +12.5%

ATL +34.1%

BOS -14.8%

ATL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ATL	NBA	BOS	ATL	NBA
this game	14.8	15.2	15.6	121.9	125.0	104.4
season	14.8	15.6		103.3	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.8		109.3	104.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.9	16.1	13.9	15.4	14.8
ATL	15.5	13.9	16.1	15.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Perkins	17	17	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.04	5	-8	13	13.0	15.2	-2.22	14.4	15.4	-1.00
Dan Dickau	44	45	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.09	4	-7	11	14.2	15.3	-1.10	15.5	14.9	0.59
Brian Scalabrine	7	8	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-6	9	14.4	14.9	-0.43	11.0	15.6	-4.56
Ryan Gomes	24	25	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-2	1	16.7	14.2	2.57	15.3	15.1	0.14
Al Jefferson	36	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	1	-5	14.9	14.8	0.06	15.6	14.9	0.75
Justin Reed	30	31	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.32	2	-5	7	14.4	15.0	-0.62	16.5	14.5	2.03
Raef LaFrentz	52	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	0	-3	14.8	14.8	0.01	14.7	15.6	-0.90
Paul Pierce	77	76	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.44	2	-5	7	14.1	17.9	-3.83	15.1	15.4	-0.28
Mark Blount	50	49	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	6	-15	15.7	13.8	1.87	15.4	15.0	0.39
Orien Greene	52	51	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.33	-7	4	-11	15.3	14.2	1.10	14.9	15.5	-0.59
Ricky Davis	91	91	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.38	-7	4	-11	15.0	12.4	2.56	15.2	14.8	0.40

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	92	91	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	1	1	15.4	10.5	4.88	14.8	16.0	-1.24
Salim Stoudamire	62	62	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.36	4	-1	5	14.2	17.0	-2.87	14.8	14.9	-0.18
Zaza Pachulia	77	78	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.35	4	-1	5	15.9	12.3	3.63	15.4	12.5	2.86
Josh Smith	48	49	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.08	9	-6	15	15.3	15.0	0.31	15.6	14.0	1.53
Joe Johnson	41	45	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.41	-3	6	-9	16.0	14.5	1.52	15.2	14.5	0.71
Josh Childress	66	65	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.41	-7	10	-17	14.4	16.9	-2.55	14.0	16.6	-2.69
Marvin Williams	43	40	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.02	7	-4	11	14.3	15.9	-1.67	14.8	14.8	0.00
Tyronn Lue	34	34	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.05	-1	4	-5	17.0	14.2	2.87	14.9	14.8	0.18
John Edwards	17	16	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	3	-3	13.7	15.5	-1.79	12.7	15.2	-2.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.45,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.73,0.68,0.71,0.9,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 101, MEM 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.44,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.48,0.63,0.59,0.76,0.77,0.69,0.55,0.77,0.92,1	93.5%
DET 104, MIA 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.74,0.78,0.69,0.67,0.45,0.5,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.62,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.91,1	92.3%
DEN 94, POR 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.7,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.77,0.53,0.64,0.86,0.99,1	92.2%