NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	81		Excitement	3.2 [1130]		MVP	Caron Butler (DAL): +16.3%
Dallas Mavericks	103		Comeback	1.1 [1013]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -10.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.03	0.06	-0.04	15	47%	0.12	2	-0.05	8	75%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	6	47%	0.01	1	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Garrett Temple	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	33%	-0.00	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.12	0.00	-0.12	5	0%	-0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	56%	-0.00	2	-0.00	4	75%	0.00
George Hill	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.05	11	55%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	6	25%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	9	46%	-0.03	1	-0.01	6	83%	-0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	39%	-0.02	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.19	0.01	0.03	24	61%	0.16	0	0.00	9	89%	0.02
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.03	-0.04	12	42%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	71%	0.04	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	14	52%	0.06	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.11	0.00	-0.09	8	47%	0.02	5	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	3	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	12	50%	-0.05
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	0.05	8	55%	-0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.5	32.8	15.8	29.5	2.6	31.0	138.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +30.3%

SAS -3.5%

DAL +11.9%

DAL +8.9%

DAL +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.1	14.0	15.3	82.7	103.0	106.0
season	15.9	15.2		108.2	107.2
opponent	15.5	15.1		104.6	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.6	16.0	15.5	12.0	15.1
DAL	14.7	12.3	12.6	16.6	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Garrett Temple	23	25	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.05	-2	-20	18	11.4	16.2	-4.80	16.6	13.2	3.47
Keith Bogans	24	26	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.10	-4	-18	14	12.0	16.0	-4.00	16.6	13.1	3.43
Tony Parker	53	52	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.15	3	-25	28	15.0	15.2	-0.17	13.6	14.5	-0.92
Ian Mahinmi	37	40	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.08	-5	-17	12	13.2	16.2	-3.05	14.7	13.6	1.18
DeJuan Blair	28	29	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.05	-5	-17	12	13.7	15.6	-1.89	15.7	13.4	2.27
Roger Mason Jr.	59	59	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.12	-9	-13	4	13.6	17.3	-3.65	14.5	13.3	1.23
Matt Bonner	46	46	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.11	-12	-10	-2	14.8	15.3	-0.57	13.9	14.1	-0.24
Tim Duncan	49	49	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.01	-12	-10	-2	16.3	13.8	2.45	13.8	14.3	-0.48
George Hill	59	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.03	-13	-9	-4	16.8	12.5	4.32	12.7	16.1	-3.39
Richard Jefferson	48	50	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.07	-15	-7	-8	16.0	14.2	1.76	13.5	14.5	-1.00
Antonio McDyess	29	27	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.13	-17	-5	-12	17.9	13.9	3.98	12.7	14.5	-1.83
Manu Ginobili	35	37	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.12	-19	-3	-16	17.4	13.7	3.68	12.6	14.9	-2.25

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Marion	52	53	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.11	21	1	20	13.5	14.6	-1.17	16.5	13.4	3.15
Brendan Haywood	63	63	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.16	22	0	22	13.8	14.5	-0.67	16.2	13.1	3.12
Caron Butler	76	75	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.21	22	0	22	13.3	16.4	-3.13	15.4	14.0	1.33
Jason Kidd	65	66	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.00	14	8	6	12.9	16.1	-3.19	16.3	12.5	3.85
Dirk Nowitzki	64	64	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.14	17	5	12	13.6	14.8	-1.15	15.6	14.0	1.63
Jose Juan Barea	52	52	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.15	14	8	6	14.9	13.1	1.76	14.1	16.2	-2.14
Jason Terry	49	47	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.12	5	17	-12	13.8	14.3	-0.56	13.7	16.3	-2.53
Eduardo Najera	46	43	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	21	-20	15.0	13.3	1.70	12.9	16.8	-3.88
DeShawn Stevenson	13	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	24	-26	18.3	13.4	4.91	11.9	15.5	-3.55
Matt Carroll	10	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	24	-26	17.7	13.6	4.07	12.1	15.3	-3.20
Rodrigue Beaubois	10	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	24	-26	17.7	13.6	4.07	12.1	15.3	-3.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.75,0.7,0.79,0.88,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 90, MIN 115	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
MEM 86, GSW 101	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
MIN 80, MEM 109	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.83,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%