NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	81		Excitement	4.8 [879]		MVP	James Jones (MIA): +15.3%
Miami Heat	71		Comeback	1.0 [493]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -21.5%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ronald Murray	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.02	10	46%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Maurice Evans	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.00	6	77%	0.07	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	8	60%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Mike Bibby	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	10	68%	0.12	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Mario West	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	12	47%	0.09	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01
Al Horford	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	5	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	14	37%	-0.01	4	-0.10	7	71%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.19	0.00	0.04	5	100%	0.18	1	-0.03	9	89%	0.02
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.05	-0.04	0.06	11	62%	0.04	2	-0.08	10	60%	-0.05
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	8	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	4	36%	-0.02	4	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.2,-0.19,-0.21,-0.19,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.13	-0.07	0.01	26	39%	-0.11	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	34.0	3.8	35.3	20.7	27.3	4.3	28.7	154.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +31.9%

ATL +10.2%

ATL +9.2%

ATL +1.0%

MIA -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	18.3	17.9	15.5	101.2	89.9	106.4
season	15.8	16.0		106.7	105.9
opponent	15.7	16.1		105.7	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.2	17.6	19.8	21.8	18.3
MIA	16.1	15.8	20.2	20.5	17.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	66	65	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.12	20	-10	30	18.5	17.4	1.07	18.3	16.1	2.15
Zaza Pachulia	56	55	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.09	20	-10	30	17.8	19.5	-1.64	18.1	17.4	0.77
Mike Bibby	72	70	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.25	11	-1	12	17.8	23.2	-5.49	18.6	12.4	6.17
Joe Johnson	70	69	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.18	11	-1	12	18.9	14.2	4.70	18.3	15.0	3.33
Maurice Evans	34	36	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.04	16	-6	22	17.9	18.6	-0.65	18.1	17.8	0.26
Ronald Murray	56	55	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	5	0	18.3	18.4	-0.09	17.6	18.7	-1.08
Al Horford	28	29	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.10	-8	18	-26	18.8	18.1	0.73	17.6	18.1	-0.46
Mario West	12	11	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.05	-10	20	-30	18.7	18.2	0.42	11.7	18.9	-7.18
Solomon Jones	7	6	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	0.11	-15	25	-40	19.7	18.2	1.54	11.3	18.5	-7.12

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	46	48	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.22	5	-15	20	18.7	16.8	1.98	18.9	17.5	1.35
Jamaal Magloire	4	4	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.04	-5	-5	0	17.2	17.9	-0.70	10.5	18.7	-8.22
Udonis Haslem	58	60	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.31	7	-17	24	18.0	17.6	0.46	19.1	16.0	3.02
Joel Anthony	10	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-6	2	16.5	18.1	-1.62	15.9	18.6	-2.71
Jermaine O'Neal	65	68	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-9	8	18.2	16.7	1.45	19.1	14.1	4.98
Yakhouba Diawara	13	14	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.01	-10	0	-10	16.9	18.1	-1.18	14.9	19.0	-4.19
Dwyane Wade	73	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.24	-4	-6	2	17.7	20.8	-3.16	18.3	18.4	-0.09
Mario Chalmers	64	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.10	-9	-1	-8	18.5	15.6	2.85	18.8	16.6	2.19
Michael Beasley	21	20	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.11	-17	7	-24	17.6	18.0	-0.46	16.0	19.1	-3.02
Daequan Cook	41	40	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	2	-14	16.9	19.0	-2.15	18.1	18.5	-0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.25,0.27,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.19,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 96, IND 85	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.21,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.27,0.24,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0	94.3%
MEM 110, UTA 94	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%
GSW 121, CHA 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.04,0,0,0	93.5%