NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	64		Excitement	2.6 [1239]		MVP	Josh Smith (ATL): +8.2%
Atlanta Hawks	90		Comeback	1.1 [1002]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -12.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	6	64%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	0.00	0.06	2	125%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	10	36%	0.02	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	5	42%	-0.01	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Daequan Cook	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	6	17%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	-0.01	-0.04	15	33%	-0.06	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.19	-0.02	-0.08	21	41%	0.01	8	-0.14	4	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	-0.00	14	68%	0.11	3	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.03	10	58%	0.08	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	5	62%	0.07	2	-0.03	6	50%	-0.01
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	8	62%	0.05	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othello Hunter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	10	45%	-0.01	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	16	44%	0.02	3	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.10	-0.00	-0.07	6	17%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	3.5	39.9	19.8	27.2	3.5	28.2	149.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +23.8%

ATL +10.5%

ATL +9.8%

ATL +6.0%

MIA -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	14.7	17.0	15.5	69.6	100.0	106.4
season	16.0	15.8		105.9	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.7		106.0	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.1	12.9	17.2	16.9	14.7
ATL	16.4	12.8	20.7	20.1	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	11	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-23	20	15.0	14.7	0.32	20.5	16.5	4.09
Joel Anthony	30	28	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.12	-5	-21	16	16.5	13.8	2.69	21.6	14.8	6.80
Jamario Moon	12	12	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.11	-7	-19	12	13.2	14.9	-1.69	17.9	16.8	1.11
Daequan Cook	39	36	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	-18	10	13.9	15.3	-1.33	18.7	15.8	2.90
James Jones	65	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.07	-12	-14	2	14.6	15.1	-0.56	17.7	15.2	2.48
Udonis Haslem	54	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.16	-17	-9	-8	14.9	14.4	0.46	13.9	21.3	-7.33
Michael Beasley	57	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.16	-17	-9	-8	14.2	15.6	-1.38	18.8	13.7	5.10
Jermaine O'Neal	46	45	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.11	-16	-10	-6	14.1	15.3	-1.22	15.2	18.7	-3.51
Dwyane Wade	79	77	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.12	-18	-8	-10	14.6	15.4	-0.78	16.5	19.4	-2.84
Mario Chalmers	67	67	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.31	-27	1	-28	15.6	12.4	3.13	15.1	22.5	-7.42

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	66	68	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.06	19	7	12	16.8	17.5	-0.74	14.0	16.7	-2.75
Joe Johnson	70	72	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.21	23	3	20	17.2	16.2	0.91	14.6	15.1	-0.49
Mike Bibby	64	64	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.23	22	4	18	15.3	21.0	-5.69	15.2	13.7	1.49
Josh Smith	76	76	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.18	20	6	14	16.1	21.6	-5.47	15.0	13.3	1.70
Marvin Williams	37	36	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.08	12	14	-2	13.3	19.5	-6.17	15.5	14.2	1.33
Ronald Murray	43	46	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.05	10	16	-6	20.1	14.1	6.05	13.9	15.6	-1.70
Maurice Evans	44	46	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.04	5	21	-16	19.1	14.9	4.22	14.4	15.0	-0.65
Zaza Pachulia	31	32	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.20	10	16	-6	19.4	15.7	3.76	15.4	14.4	1.01
Speedy Claxton	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	23	-20	16.5	17.0	-0.49	15.0	14.7	0.30
Solomon Jones	7	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	23	-20	17.1	16.9	0.20	15.4	14.7	0.72
Mario West	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	23	-20	16.5	17.0	-0.49	15.0	14.7	0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.76,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 78, UTA 116	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.6%
GSW 78, LAL 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%
CHA 93, ATL 120	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%