NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	105		Excitement	13.3 [9]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +64.5%
Boston Celtics	103		Comeback	4.2 [143]		LVP	Ray Allen (BOS): -38.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0.65	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.65	0.16	0.47	-0.02	19	72%	0.85	5	-0.20	12	100%	0.19
Tyrus Thomas	0.39	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.39	0.03	0.35	-0.01	12	67%	0.45	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.42,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.03	0.15	0.01	17	48%	0.17	0	0.00	8	87%	0.04
Tim Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	16	37%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	4	37%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.32	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.32,-0.32	-0.05	-0.27	-0.00	12	42%	-0.14	2	-0.18	2	50%	-0.03
Brad Miller	-0.37	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37	-0.16	-0.21	0.00	11	18%	-0.23	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.17,0.18,0.28,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.13	0.27	0.00	21	63%	0.50	1	-0.10	4	100%	0.09
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	15	47%	0.05	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	31%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	11	61%	0.10	3	-0.12	1	0%	-0.01
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.13,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.05,0.05,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	21	48%	0.16	4	-0.23	6	83%	-0.08
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.39	-0.39	-0.15	-0.24	-0.00	12	15%	-0.37	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	31.1	3.7	31.3	18.0	26.5	3.0	46.2	1.7	17.8	179.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +66.8%

BOS -1.5%

BOS -4.1%

BOS -7.3%

BOS -3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	BOS	NBA	CHI	BOS	NBA
this game	13.7	15.4	15.5	95.5	94.5	106.4
season	14.8	15.8		106.3	108.3
opponent	15.6	15.7		101.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	12.4	13.0	15.9	13.3	14.7	13.7
BOS	14.3	15.8	16.1	14.4	18.7	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	95	93	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.67	-1	3	-4	14.0	11.4	2.63	15.3	16.0	-0.73
Kirk Hinrich	52	48	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.35	9	-7	16	11.4	15.7	-4.30	16.2	14.7	1.52
Derrick Rose	103	103	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.27	8	-6	14	13.8	12.1	1.63	15.2	17.7	-2.42
Brad Miller	55	58	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.02	9	-7	16	13.1	14.3	-1.24	15.5	15.2	0.26
Tyrus Thomas	58	57	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.30	-1	3	-4	14.2	13.1	1.09	15.0	15.7	-0.71
John Salmons	83	86	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.38	-8	10	-18	14.1	12.3	1.78	15.0	16.7	-1.73
Joakim Noah	93	90	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.23	-6	8	-14	14.2	10.5	3.72	15.5	14.7	0.77
Tim Thomas	11	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	2	-2	12.5	13.8	-1.25	16.8	15.2	1.57

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Davis	82	82	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.18	7	-9	16	15.0	16.7	-1.72	14.7	10.6	4.06
Stephon Marbury	22	23	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	2	-6	15.8	15.3	0.55	10.5	14.5	-3.98
Mikki Moore	11	12	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.05	-6	4	-10	17.3	15.2	2.11	11.7	13.9	-2.16
Tony Allen	17	19	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.08	-9	7	-16	14.8	15.5	-0.65	11.4	14.1	-2.72
Paul Pierce	87	88	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.56	11	-13	24	14.8	17.7	-2.95	14.2	11.5	2.66
Kendrick Perkins	85	86	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.38	4	-6	10	15.2	15.9	-0.64	14.6	10.4	4.16
Eddie House	35	37	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.01	-9	7	-16	16.8	14.7	2.10	11.1	15.0	-3.95
Leon Powe	35	35	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.00	-10	8	-18	16.7	14.7	2.01	11.4	14.7	-3.38
Rajon Rondo	89	90	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.47	4	-6	10	15.2	16.2	-1.07	14.1	11.9	2.17
Ray Allen	82	78	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.79	2	-4	6	15.3	15.5	-0.14	14.6	11.5	3.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.23,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.25,0.64,0.67,0.27,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.34,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 103, VAN 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.41,0.34,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.58,0.45,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.33,0.24,0.35,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.39,0.45,0.27,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.16,0	89.6%
DAL 101, HOU 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.43,0.32,0.26,0.35,0.33,0.45,0.78,0.68,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.23,0.58,0	89.4%
CLE 86, MIA 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.38,0.4,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.35,0.27,0.38,0.46,0.57,0.73,0.46,0.39,0.21,0.16,0.26,0	89.1%