NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	86		Excitement	9.7 [63]		MVP	Jumaine Jones (CLE): +18.4%
Miami Heat	81		Comeback	8.8 [104]		LVP	Andre Miller (CLE): -29.8%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jumaine Jones	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18	0.04	0.14	-0.00	15	56%	0.21	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chris Mihm	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13	-0.01	0.12	-0.01	11	50%	0.17	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04
Ricky Davis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	71%	0.09	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.04
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	10	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.05
Brian Skinner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	13	46%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Lamond Murray	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23	-0.17	-0.08	-0.02	13	25%	-0.15	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Miller	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.37,-0.37,-0.1,-0.16,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.3	-0.19	-0.11	-0.00	13	29%	-0.18	3	-0.12	8	87%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	-0.03	0.14	-0.00	14	50%	0.17	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	17	39%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	22	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.06
Brian Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	6	50%	-0.06	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	6	25%	-0.14	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	8	12%	-0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.07	-0.10	0.02	12	33%	-0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.2	2.6	27.5	15.5	25.5	2.3	34.3	2.5	16.4	153.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	1.7	16.7	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +48.2%

CLE +15.0%

CLE +12.1%

MIA -42.3%

CLE +17.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIA	NBA	CLE	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	17.0	15.6	88.7	85.3	102.3
season	15.8	16.5		102.6	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.5		98.2	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CLE	16.2	16.7	16.4	15.2	15.7	16.1
MIA	14.5	18.4	14.8	19.8	19.9	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Person	74	73	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.35	4	1	3	16.2	15.8	0.43	17.2	16.4	0.80
Lamond Murray	83	81	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.40	-1	6	-7	15.8	17.9	-2.12	16.7	18.8	-2.07
Ricky Davis	45	44	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.02	11	-6	17	16.4	15.9	0.53	17.6	16.5	1.02
Jumaine Jones	80	79	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.33	-1	6	-7	15.9	16.9	-1.00	16.9	17.6	-0.65
Chris Mihm	58	56	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.42	-5	10	-15	16.1	16.2	-0.07	15.1	19.7	-4.62
Andre Miller	71	68	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.32	-2	7	-9	16.7	14.6	2.10	16.6	18.0	-1.32
Bimbo Coles	26	27	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.01	9	-4	13	14.6	16.7	-2.10	18.0	16.6	1.32
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	39	39	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.02	8	-3	11	16.2	16.1	0.07	19.7	15.1	4.62
Brian Skinner	9	8	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.00	2	3	-1	18.2	15.9	2.32	16.5	17.1	-0.57

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	58	57	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-8	11	16.7	17.5	-0.76	17.0	14.9	2.11
Rod Strickland	72	72	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.23	5	-10	15	17.2	16.5	0.72	16.3	15.7	0.58
Eddie Jones	69	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.37	5	-10	15	17.3	16.3	0.98	16.8	14.1	2.64
Alonzo Mourning	75	77	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.39	4	-9	13	16.6	18.5	-1.94	15.8	17.1	-1.31
Jim Jackson	85	85	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-2	-1	17.1	16.5	0.58	15.9	17.9	-2.06
Eddie House	23	25	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.12	-10	5	-15	16.5	17.2	-0.72	15.7	16.3	-0.58
Kendall Gill	37	38	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.01	-16	11	-27	16.4	17.4	-1.05	15.3	16.7	-1.40
LaPhonso Ellis	56	58	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.34	-13	8	-21	17.9	15.8	2.08	15.7	16.7	-0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.38,0.4,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.35,0.27,0.38,0.46,0.57,0.73,0.46,0.39,0.21,0.16,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 103, PHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.23,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.28,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.77,0.96,0.46,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.04,0	90.0%
MIA 98, TOR 91	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.55,0.58,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.23,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.4,0.45,0.71,0.55,0.73,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.15,0.02,0	89.3%
CHI 105, BOS 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.23,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.25,0.64,0.67,0.27,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.34,0.42,0	89.1%