NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	10.0 [53]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +34.2%
Toronto Raptors	91		Comeback	15.4 [76]		LVP	Vince Carter (TOR): -45.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.34	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.07	0.28	0.01	12	69%	0.40	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
A.C. Green	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	0.00	10	64%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Anthony Mason	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.16,-0.11,-0.09	-0.13	0.02	-0.02	14	44%	0.01	5	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Anthony Carter	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	7	59%	0.01	3	-0.11	3	67%	-0.02
Eddie Jones	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2	-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	18	41%	-0.07	3	-0.13	8	62%	-0.06
Brian Grant	-0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.03	-0.26	0.00	12	54%	-0.03	3	-0.27	2	100%	0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	6	69%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.10	-0.02	8	50%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.06	-0.02	17	37%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.00	8	61%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	8	31%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	5	8%	-0.11	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.35	-0.16	-0.19	-0.00	17	41%	-0.10	5	-0.25	5	80%	-0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.15,-0.29,-0.23,-0.3,-0.38,-0.47,-0.46	-0.46	-0.12	-0.33	0.00	26	44%	-0.29	3	-0.17	11	64%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.2	3.3	29.3	18.8	24.2	3.4	30.6	2.4	17.3	151.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	1.7	17.2	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +47.2%

MIA +13.1%

TOR -0.3%

TOR -17.7%

MIA +7.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	14.7	16.1	15.5	95.1	88.3	100.9
season	16.3	15.8		98.4	103.7
opponent	15.4	16.1		101.6	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	13.6	14.6	15.0	17.2	12.4	14.7
TOR	15.7	14.8	17.8	17.1	14.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	92	92	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.28	14	-7	21	14.4	17.5	-3.14	16.3	15.1	1.17
Dan Majerle	37	39	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.08	17	-10	27	12.8	15.8	-3.01	15.9	16.3	-0.34
Eddie Jones	81	81	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.36	-1	8	-9	15.1	13.4	1.69	15.8	17.4	-1.62
Tim Hardaway	71	71	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.26	2	5	-3	14.6	15.0	-0.43	16.2	16.0	0.20
Bruce Bowen	79	77	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	7	-7	15.4	12.5	2.97	16.4	15.3	1.06
A.C. Green	55	54	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.05	8	-1	9	15.2	14.2	1.07	16.0	16.3	-0.25
Anthony Carter	41	41	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	4	-1	14.7	14.8	-0.13	16.4	16.0	0.46
Brian Grant	59	60	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.27	-8	15	-23	14.8	14.7	0.14	16.0	16.3	-0.21

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	47	48	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.01	4	-11	15	15.6	16.6	-0.92	14.8	14.7	0.10
Dell Curry	28	27	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.20	4	-11	15	16.9	15.9	0.99	15.5	14.5	1.06
Tracy Murray	14	13	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	-2	-3	16.1	16.1	-0.07	13.5	14.9	-1.37
Charles Oakley	83	83	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.28	-1	-6	5	16.1	16.1	-0.02	14.5	15.8	-1.38
Keon Clark	30	29	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.03	-12	5	-17	15.9	16.2	-0.38	14.8	14.7	0.08
Alvin Williams	57	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	-10	3	-13	16.4	15.8	0.56	14.4	15.2	-0.79
Antonio Davis	93	94	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	-6	5	16.2	15.3	0.93	15.0	12.4	2.51
Vince Carter	83	85	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.28	-7	0	-7	16.0	16.9	-0.95	15.0	13.5	1.50
Mark Jackson	80	79	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.32	-7	0	-7	16.2	15.9	0.29	14.6	15.2	-0.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.47,0.55,0.58,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.23,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.4,0.45,0.71,0.55,0.73,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.15,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 121, DEN 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.44,0.41,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.3,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.41,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.38,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.6,0.53,0.38,0.71,0.77,0.58,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.16,0.26,0	89.7%
CLE 86, MIA 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.38,0.4,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.35,0.27,0.38,0.46,0.57,0.73,0.46,0.39,0.21,0.16,0.26,0	89.3%
DET 113, LAC 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.31,0.25,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.33,0.24,0.35,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.23,0.01,0	89.0%