NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	75		Excitement	6.8 [485]		MVP	Brent Barry (SAS): +16.1%
Cleveland Cavaliers	72		Comeback	2.5 [532]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -21.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.07	-0.03	5	90%	0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	6	81%	0.15	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05
Robert Horry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.04	0.02	17	39%	0.03	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.04
Fabricio Oberto	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	7	43%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.03,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	17	45%	0.03	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.27,-0.27,-0.21	-0.15	-0.06	-0.00	7	17%	-0.08	3	-0.13	4	75%	0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Drew Gooden	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	11	50%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	13	44%	0.01	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.19,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	0.01	23	46%	0.05	5	-0.13	8	87%	0.05
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	15	41%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.13	-0.00	4	50%	-0.08	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	10	10%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	4.7	35.0	19.8	28.1	3.8	38.1	157.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +68.2%

CLE -7.9%

CLE -2.1%

CLE -10.0%

SAS +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CLE	NBA	SAS	CLE	NBA
this game	16.8	17.3	15.4	89.3	84.7	104.5
season	16.2	16.0		107.5	103.2
opponent	15.6	15.4		99.6	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.8	14.9	16.8	17.5	16.8
CLE	18.2	18.5	17.5	15.2	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	49	51	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.38	7	-4	11	16.3	17.4	-1.16	15.7	19.8	-4.11
Brent Barry	33	34	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.16	13	-10	23	14.6	18.1	-3.53	15.8	18.4	-2.56
Tim Duncan	60	60	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.45	0	3	-3	17.4	15.1	2.33	17.0	18.1	-1.12
Bruce Bowen	76	76	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.49	-3	6	-9	17.0	14.0	3.04	17.6	15.3	2.23
Tony Parker	67	68	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.22	1	2	-1	17.1	15.3	1.83	17.4	17.0	0.41
Jacque Vaughn	16	16	0.23	0.28	-0.05	0.17	2	1	1	16.2	16.9	-0.69	17.7	17.2	0.52
Robert Horry	34	36	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	0	3	17.2	16.4	0.82	16.2	18.2	-2.02
Fabricio Oberto	37	36	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.03	5	-2	7	15.9	17.4	-1.49	18.2	16.7	1.45
Francisco Elson	8	9	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.05	-5	8	-13	17.0	16.7	0.28	21.9	16.8	5.10
Michael Finley	40	39	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.06	-8	11	-19	17.5	16.1	1.38	19.8	15.2	4.56

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anderson Varejao	27	25	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.14	3	-6	9	15.1	18.3	-3.20	17.5	16.4	1.04
Eric Snow	31	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.16	1	-4	5	16.7	17.7	-0.92	17.4	16.4	0.96
Drew Gooden	55	57	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-3	3	17.5	17.1	0.41	17.5	15.1	2.47
Donyell Marshall	11	11	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-1	-1	18.9	17.1	1.81	13.8	17.2	-3.37
Damon Jones	32	32	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.22	-5	2	-7	17.2	17.4	-0.13	15.2	17.7	-2.57
Sasha Pavlovic	74	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-2	1	17.1	18.9	-1.81	17.0	15.2	1.80
LeBron James	73	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.50	4	-7	11	17.5	16.2	1.35	17.2	13.7	3.48
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	56	56	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	1	-5	18.8	14.6	4.22	16.6	17.0	-0.32
Daniel Gibson	66	65	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.22	-11	8	-19	17.0	18.5	-1.54	16.1	19.0	-2.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 99, DEN 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.01,0	94.5%
HOU 103, SAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.14,0.19,0.33,0.25,0.01,0.02,0.02,0	94.1%
ORL 92, CHA 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.12,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.02,0	93.8%