NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	103		Excitement	7.3 [361]		MVP	Hakeem Olajuwon (HOU): +13.6%
San Antonio Spurs	99		Comeback	2.3 [1091]		LVP	Carl Herrera (SAS): -18.3%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hakeem Olajuwon	0.14	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14	0.06	0.06	-0.02	16	66%	0.19	2	-0.06	9	100%	0.09
Matt Maloney	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.1,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	10	70%	0.18	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Randy Livingston	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charles Barkley	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.05	0.06	0.01	19	51%	0.08	3	-0.07	9	78%	0.03
Othella Harrington	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clyde Drexler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	0.02	19	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Sedale Threatt	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Johnson	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	8	33%	-0.11	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	13	61%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	11	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	13	60%	0.09	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Jamie Feick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	11	43%	-0.04	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.05	0.03	12	42%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.05	0.02	20	39%	-0.18	0	0.00	9	33%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.6	31.2	17.8	26.2	3.3	39.5	146.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +33.8%

HOU +22.1%

HOU +1.7%

SAS -17.0%

HOU +9.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAS	NBA	HOU	SAS	NBA
this game	16.4	14.8	15.6	112.0	106.5	104.4
season	15.5	16.8		107.2	100.8
opponent	15.4	15.4		109.4	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	18.0	16.1	15.0	16.3	16.4
SAS	13.3	15.2	17.0	13.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clyde Drexler	76	79	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.31	8	-4	12	17.0	13.6	3.41	14.9	13.8	1.15
Charles Barkley	73	75	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.30	7	-3	10	17.0	13.9	3.07	14.8	14.7	0.05
Hakeem Olajuwon	73	75	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.32	3	1	2	16.4	16.4	0.02	14.1	17.7	-3.60
Matt Maloney	72	72	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	1	2	16.6	15.5	1.13	14.5	15.6	-1.04
Eddie Johnson	66	66	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.29	0	4	-4	16.7	15.6	1.07	13.5	17.8	-4.25
Randy Livingston	24	23	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	0	4	14.5	17.1	-2.60	15.4	14.5	0.89
Kevin Willis	36	34	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.13	-2	6	-8	15.3	17.1	-1.72	16.4	13.8	2.51
Sedale Threatt	38	39	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.15	-3	7	-10	15.4	17.1	-1.63	16.5	13.5	3.06
Othella Harrington	2	2	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	4	-4	12.0	16.5	-4.48	13.5	14.8	-1.29

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vernon Maxwell	22	21	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.04	8	-12	20	13.5	15.2	-1.65	17.7	16.0	1.73
Jamie Feick	12	14	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.08	6	-10	16	13.7	14.9	-1.26	14.5	16.7	-2.22
Will Perdue	53	50	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.38	8	-12	20	14.5	15.0	-0.50	15.9	16.9	-0.96
Avery Johnson	43	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.15	-4	0	-4	16.3	13.5	2.78	16.2	16.5	-0.32
Cory Alexander	62	60	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.34	0	-4	4	15.1	14.1	1.00	16.3	16.6	-0.33
Greg Anderson	45	48	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	7	-18	14.8	14.7	0.03	15.8	17.0	-1.23
Dominique Wilkins	69	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.22	-8	4	-12	13.9	17.2	-3.35	16.4	16.3	0.04
Carl Herrera	77	74	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.25	-9	5	-14	15.0	13.6	1.38	17.1	13.3	3.86
Vinny Del Negro	82	81	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.33	-10	6	-16	14.9	14.0	0.87	16.5	15.8	0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.14,0.19,0.33,0.25,0.01,0.02,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 92, SAS 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.74,0.69,0.71,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.08,0	94.4%
SAS 75, CLE 72	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.04,0	94.1%
ORL 92, CHA 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.12,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.02,0	93.4%