NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	92		Excitement	6.6 [497]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +24.4%
San Antonio Spurs	86		Comeback	2.9 [220]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -26.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.24	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.18,0.25,0.24	0.09	0.17	0.01	24	54%	0.24	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Josh Howard	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.01	13	71%	0.15	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Josh Powell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	3	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Erick Dampier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	5	36%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Darrell Armstrong	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.02	9	57%	0.09	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12	0.01	-0.12	0.01	13	54%	-0.01	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.03	0.00	8	87%	0.18	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	12	52%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	18	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.06
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	2	12%	-0.08	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.07
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	15	36%	-0.05	2	-0.07	6	50%	-0.04
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25,-0.3,-0.3,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.16	-0.09	0.01	15	33%	-0.09	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	3.8	35.2	17.7	28.1	3.5	41.4	156.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +41.7%

DAL +15.1%

SAS -17.8%

DAL +11.6%

SAS -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.4	17.3	15.6	107.0	101.2	104.4
season	16.4	16.3		109.0	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.6		99.4	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.7	15.9	16.8	17.4	16.4
SAS	17.0	16.1	19.2	16.9	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeSagana Diop	41	39	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.05	17	-11	28	15.4	17.3	-1.89	16.5	17.9	-1.33
Josh Howard	61	63	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-7	20	16.3	16.7	-0.35	16.4	19.8	-3.39
Dirk Nowitzki	77	75	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.30	7	-1	8	16.4	16.9	-0.51	16.8	20.4	-3.56
Jason Terry	74	74	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.22	7	-1	8	16.6	15.4	1.18	17.0	18.7	-1.69
Jerry Stackhouse	67	67	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.17	7	-1	8	16.6	15.9	0.62	17.3	17.2	0.05
Marquis Daniels	24	23	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.07	3	3	0	15.1	16.9	-1.81	20.4	16.1	4.29
Josh Powell	24	24	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.18	-2	8	-10	17.7	15.9	1.83	17.1	17.3	-0.19
Erick Dampier	44	45	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.33	-13	19	-32	17.7	15.1	2.61	18.2	16.2	1.95
Darrell Armstrong	18	15	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.16	-9	15	-24	14.9	16.8	-1.88	18.6	17.0	1.63

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	26	27	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.18	8	-14	22	18.3	16.8	1.57	18.4	15.5	2.88
Rasho Nesterovic	9	9	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-9	12	18.0	17.2	0.83	16.8	16.4	0.39
Brent Barry	24	26	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-6	6	19.5	16.4	3.06	16.5	16.4	0.10
Michael Finley	56	55	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.42	10	-16	26	18.2	15.4	2.80	16.5	16.3	0.17
Tim Duncan	68	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.37	2	-8	10	17.0	18.1	-1.07	16.8	14.9	1.83
Fabricio Oberto	35	35	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-4	2	19.9	15.4	4.51	16.9	16.1	0.86
Nazr Mohammed	26	27	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.09	-15	9	-24	17.1	17.3	-0.21	15.3	16.9	-1.65
Bruce Bowen	62	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.14	-8	2	-10	15.5	21.9	-6.32	16.3	16.7	-0.36
Manu Ginobili	60	59	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.14	-14	8	-22	15.9	20.5	-4.62	16.2	16.9	-0.72
Tony Parker	59	59	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.15	-14	8	-22	16.8	18.3	-1.57	15.5	18.4	-2.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.74,0.69,0.71,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 103, SAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.14,0.19,0.33,0.25,0.01,0.02,0.02,0	94.4%
UTA 103, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.61,0.73,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.38,0.39,0.23,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.03,0.05,0	93.3%
SAS 75, CLE 72	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.04,0	93.3%